(03-10-2016, 02:57 AM)Mav link Wrote:All Hell may break loose if Trump wins the most delegates leading in to the convention but a contested convention nominates someone else. Trump may well run as an independent Presidential candidate. Yes, he has declared that he won't do this but we know he is quite prepared to do this.
Initially, I thought that would help the Dems. It would split the Rep vote and leave the Dem candidate with the most delegates. But here's the rub - if the Dem candidate doesn't win 270 delegates, namely a majority of delegates, he or she wouldn't win the election.
What happens then? The House of Representatives will choose the President! The representatives from each state will have just 1 vote amongst them and vote on a nominee. As there is currently a gerrymander in place which guarantees the Republicans control of the House until 2020, it matters not whether it's the current House or the one following the forthcoming elections which will decide. Either way, the Republicans will pick the new President.
Trump is likely to pull blue collar democratic votes away from Hillary but perhaps not from Bernie while hobbling the Republican candidate. An unelectable ideologue may end up President.
Add in the fact that many committed Republicans and Democrats are very likely to not vote at all in the general election should their candidate of choice fail to gain the nomination and it becomes even more of a "dog's breakfast".
This is a likely scenario given the polarising and "different to traditional" nature of some of the candidates.
It's impossible to pick at the moment.