Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[Mav]

Here are 2 articles developing the point that the GOP candidates have failed to vet and challenge Trump:
How The Republican Party Has Failed To Dig Up Dirt On Donald Trump, HuffPost, 25/2/16.

It's no secret that rival campaigns were caught off guard by Donald Trump's ascent in the Republican primary. But the extent to which they are still left scrambling to prevent him from becoming the nominee -- on the eve of the crucial Super Tuesday primaries -- is alarming many Republicans and astonishing rival Democrats.

Multiple Republican campaign sources and operatives have confided that none of the remaining candidates for president have completed a major anti-Trump opposition research effort. There are several such efforts being run by outside conservative organizations. But those efforts are still gathering intel on the businessman after having started late in the primary season, these sources told The Huffington Post. And they worry that it may come too late.
...
Whether the fruits of this late opposition-research push or the investigative work of the reporters themselves, some critical, deeply investigated articles on Trump have begun popping up. On Wednesday, Bloomberg News had a comprehensive look at Trump's troubled international business dealings. And on Thursday, The New York Times reported that Trump had been relying heavily on foreign labor at his Florida resort, in contrast with a campaign promise to create jobs for American workers.

But it is treated as a truism among Republicans that a vast reservoir of damaging opposition research remains untouched. It's a suspicion that Democrats aren't challenging. Indeed, one Democratic opposition research said that they’ve spent the past eight months compiling material on Trump as he’s risen up the ranks. That's actually not a lot of time. Democrats had started focusing on Mitt Romney in 2009 -- a full two years before he ran again for the presidency. But those eight months have produced some good.

That researcher estimated that of all the material they’ve compiled -- court and property records, newspaper clips and videos -- approximately 80 percent of it has yet to surface in this election cycle.

Donald Trump is an evil genius: How he abandoned political strategy and won over the GOP’s bloodthirsty base, Salon, 25/2/16.

Conservative writer Matt Lewis has called the Republican establishment “stupid and gutless” for failing to attack Trump. He suggests that someone run an ad that tells people how he cut off medical care to a sick infant (his own nephew)—just to get back at his parents.  Here’s what Stuart Stevens says would be a real campaign against Donald Trump:

“The way to beat Donald Trump is to go after the essence of Donald Trump,” Stevens said. “Donald Trump is a ridiculous figure. He’s not a particular business success. Four bankruptcies! He doesn’t have a junior-high-school-level understanding of policy—he doesn’t know what the nuclear triad is. You’ve got to turn to Donald Trump in a debate and say, ‘You’re a ridiculous figure. You don’t know what you’re talking about. And this tariff idea will cost jobs, it will damage the economy, just like you bankrupted Atlantic City.’ ” Stevens recalled that after Vladimir Putin said some nice things about Trump, the candidate arranged his entire foreign policy around a pro-Putin stance. Trump is “like a stray dog,” Stevens said. “Pat him on the head and he’ll follow you home.”

Now, those articles are from left-wing commentators.  But the point is that the Republican primaries are like a preliminary final.  Trump can implement a stunning game plan in it but the Grand Final opponent isn't going to be blindsided if he does the same thing again.

Guys like Cruz and Rubio have avoided taking on Trump because they are competing for the same voters.  Cruz bear hugged Trump from the start, making an effort to be nice to Trump and echo his thoughts.  He hoped that Trump would drop out and Cruz would inherit his supporters.  Rubio has just been scared of Trump humiliating him.  The Democratic candidate won't be competing for the same voters at all.  If Trump goes after Sanders or Clinton, he won't win over their base.  Instead, he will motivate their supporters to turn out to vote. Let's say, for instance, that Clinton beats Sanders.  One of her problems is that Sanders' supporters will spit the dummy and refuse to vote at all.  If Trump attacks Clinton as viciously as he has his Republican rivals and lambasts left-wing principles, that may persuade Sanders' voters to unite behind Clinton.  He may well create a YUGE turn out of Democratic voters.  Failing to vote is a major determinant in an optional voting system. 

Of course, this is also true of turning out Black and Hispanic voters.  Trump boasted of winning the Latino vote in Nevada but few Hispanics in Nevada identify as Republicans - only about 7%.  If he keeps up his rhetoric, he'll turn out the other 93% to vote against him.  The other issue is whether he can inherit the moderate Republican vote.  Outraging them sufficiently may not result in them voting for the Democratic contender but it may result in many refusing to vote at all.