02-24-2016, 10:40 PM
Very disturbing ...
The thinking used to be that Trump had a solid floor of support - 25-30% - but he also had a solid ceiling of 40% or so. That underpinned the theory that if he could be isolated in a 2 man race his opponent would comfortably beat him. But he has just polled 46% of the vote, more than Rubio and Cruz combined.
The only hope is that Nevada is an anomaly. Apparently, polls suggest that 60% of voters yesterday identified as "angry" and Trump won 70% of their votes. Other primaries aren't quite as angry. Nevada is the home of Cliven Bundy, after all.
But the wishful thinking hasn't worked so far and it's unlikely to work now. Trump is leading Rubio in his home state of Florida according to the polls and Rubio was expected to do well in Nevada because he had lived there for some time. Cruz was hoping evangelicals in southern states would carry him to victory but he has bombed in SC and Nevada.
Another complication is that a few of the primaries are "winner take all" contests. Trump can therefore win a majority of delegates nationally without needing to get 50% of the vote. Trump took every delegate in South Carolina and he'll take all of the Florida delegates if he wins in Florida.
The thinking used to be that Trump had a solid floor of support - 25-30% - but he also had a solid ceiling of 40% or so. That underpinned the theory that if he could be isolated in a 2 man race his opponent would comfortably beat him. But he has just polled 46% of the vote, more than Rubio and Cruz combined.
The only hope is that Nevada is an anomaly. Apparently, polls suggest that 60% of voters yesterday identified as "angry" and Trump won 70% of their votes. Other primaries aren't quite as angry. Nevada is the home of Cliven Bundy, after all.
But the wishful thinking hasn't worked so far and it's unlikely to work now. Trump is leading Rubio in his home state of Florida according to the polls and Rubio was expected to do well in Nevada because he had lived there for some time. Cruz was hoping evangelicals in southern states would carry him to victory but he has bombed in SC and Nevada.
Another complication is that a few of the primaries are "winner take all" contests. Trump can therefore win a majority of delegates nationally without needing to get 50% of the vote. Trump took every delegate in South Carolina and he'll take all of the Florida delegates if he wins in Florida.