02-19-2016, 10:36 PM
Remember that the GOP may face a brokered convention: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/contested...d=37003821.
As that article notes, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates and the 1st vote at the Republican Convention goes according to the commitments of those delegates, all the delegates will be released from their commitments and they can vote for whomever they want. There's a restriction currently that they can only vote for a candidate who has won 8 primaries, but the GOP can play around with that.
This article suggests Trump would be smoked in a brokered convention: http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ss...moked.html.
The problem for the GOP is that snubbing Trump if he goes into the convention as the leader would almost certainly see him run as an independent Presidential candidate. That would almost certainly split the conservative vote and hand the election to the Democratic candidate. Yes, he signed a pledge that he'd support the GOP nominee, but he then stated that this would only be if he was treated fairly. He then said at one of the debates that he'd back the nominee no matter what, but we all know he'll walk away from that commitment if it suits him.
I wonder whether the GOP is all that unhappy about the logjam of candidates. On the one hand, it does split the establishment vote 4 ways at the moment, but it also helps to stop Trump from winning a majority of delegates thereby preserving the party's power over the convention. If the field thins down to Trump and Cruz, perhaps Trump can win a majority.
As that article notes, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates and the 1st vote at the Republican Convention goes according to the commitments of those delegates, all the delegates will be released from their commitments and they can vote for whomever they want. There's a restriction currently that they can only vote for a candidate who has won 8 primaries, but the GOP can play around with that.
This article suggests Trump would be smoked in a brokered convention: http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ss...moked.html.
The problem for the GOP is that snubbing Trump if he goes into the convention as the leader would almost certainly see him run as an independent Presidential candidate. That would almost certainly split the conservative vote and hand the election to the Democratic candidate. Yes, he signed a pledge that he'd support the GOP nominee, but he then stated that this would only be if he was treated fairly. He then said at one of the debates that he'd back the nominee no matter what, but we all know he'll walk away from that commitment if it suits him.
I wonder whether the GOP is all that unhappy about the logjam of candidates. On the one hand, it does split the establishment vote 4 ways at the moment, but it also helps to stop Trump from winning a majority of delegates thereby preserving the party's power over the convention. If the field thins down to Trump and Cruz, perhaps Trump can win a majority.