If the Senate point blank refuses to give an Obama nominee a fair hearing, the Republicans may also lose control of the Senate. Congressional elections run alongside the Presidential Election in November. The Congress is widely condemned for gridlocking government and such a high-profile reminder of this tendency may draw punishment from the voters.
Interesting to see how Obama approaches this. He can nominate a moderate or even a moderate right-winger and that will intensify pressure on the Republican Senators to confirm the nominee. The voters would see a failure to do so as pure bloody-mindedness. Nervous Republicans would also start to worry if they think Sanders or Clinton will win as they may end up with a far more left-wing appointment under the new president.
On the other hand, Obama may nominate a black or Latino nominee to rally minority supporters to turn out in support of the Democratic candidate.
Obama could even select the nuclear option - he could bypass the Senate altogether. As Scalia died while the Senate was in recess, he can appoint a new judge directly. Some commentators think he can even do that after the Senate resumes next week as the vacancy occurred while it was in recess. The Senate would then need to confirm the appointment by the end of the first sittings. The Senate may well do the opposite, but it would then have to have a vote to eject a sitting justice. The Republican Senators would far prefer to be able to drag their heels in considering a nominee and run out the term that way. Especially if Obama appoints a recently-comfirmed Justice of the Court of Appeals, some of whom were confirmed unanimously, Obama could well say that his appointment had been thoroughly vetted and approved already. This strategy might help the Republicans in the elections, though, as it would play into their characterisation of Obama flouting the Constitution by bypassing Congress.
Interesting to see how Obama approaches this. He can nominate a moderate or even a moderate right-winger and that will intensify pressure on the Republican Senators to confirm the nominee. The voters would see a failure to do so as pure bloody-mindedness. Nervous Republicans would also start to worry if they think Sanders or Clinton will win as they may end up with a far more left-wing appointment under the new president.
On the other hand, Obama may nominate a black or Latino nominee to rally minority supporters to turn out in support of the Democratic candidate.
Obama could even select the nuclear option - he could bypass the Senate altogether. As Scalia died while the Senate was in recess, he can appoint a new judge directly. Some commentators think he can even do that after the Senate resumes next week as the vacancy occurred while it was in recess. The Senate would then need to confirm the appointment by the end of the first sittings. The Senate may well do the opposite, but it would then have to have a vote to eject a sitting justice. The Republican Senators would far prefer to be able to drag their heels in considering a nominee and run out the term that way. Especially if Obama appoints a recently-comfirmed Justice of the Court of Appeals, some of whom were confirmed unanimously, Obama could well say that his appointment had been thoroughly vetted and approved already. This strategy might help the Republicans in the elections, though, as it would play into their characterisation of Obama flouting the Constitution by bypassing Congress.