For Discussion

[crashlander]

We "won" the spoon this year and have lost Judd, Carrazzo, Bell, Henderson and Yarran, we would be at fairly short odds to go back to back.
If we win half a dozen games we'll have done very well, 8 wins will be a minor miracle and will probably mean that our five or six top players have played near to a full season, and Jamison as well.
I'm hopeful that we'll improve but not confident.

According to the AFL stats, we had about 5 times the number of games lost to injury than the average of other clubs. Only Gold Coast were comparable to us in their injury woes. It was one of the things that Trigg noted in trying (and failing) to answer my question last night. Then, look at the guys who were injured and the number of critical players was huge.
Look at the guys you mentioned: neither Henderson, Yarran nor Menzel (who you didn't mention) made any significant contribution in the season. Their output on 2015 levels will not be missed and their replacement must improve our overall output. Judd we missed terribly, but we were always going to miss him in 2016. Carrots did well when he was fit, but he was also expected to retire. Bell is the only one of those who would be expected to make a significant contribution based on 2015 form (only). I doubt very much that our replacements cannot cover those losses in the circumstances.
I cannot see us winning more than 8 games either, but I expect us to show a lot for large segments of games and to surprise many teams. Hopefully we can surprise a few them terminally.