The Great Ruck Debate.

[Lods]

On Hoyne and Negrepontis, the statistical analysis is thin because it gives no considerations to the strengths and weakness of opponents, if and how our tactics may have changed, and how the opposition was impacted by our tactics. It's always going to be like that because the issue is too complex for it to be framed in numbers.

Team sports are like the travelling salesmen problem on steroids. As we know, a hypothesis only becomes a theory when it predicts outcomes better than chance, but you won't find that to be the case with the stats. If the stats had any value at all they would be used to predict game outcomes in advance, but they never do, they always discuss outcomes retrospectively.

Of course the stats can't predict an outcome, because much of the stats collected are the result of chance events, a coin toss moment, true randomness, even the oval footy contributes.

If you could be bothered to go back through this thread, you'll find the same set of statistics framed in different ways in response to varied questions. The problem is the response and the conclusions that are drawn not the numbers, that is how humans have interpreted the numbers, applying meaning to the figures, but interpretations and meaning can be logically inconsistent. btw., In another framework we've discussed this about the collection of stats, in they way the AFL or CD define an type of action and who decides an event qualifies.

For me there was a huge tell earlier this season, long before this debate escalated, it was the conclusions that some drew from the win over Melbourne dismissing the tactics as somehow lucky. In that game the two rucks and tactics didn't deliver a great positive result in the ruck, in fact Gawn was among Melbourne's best and probably with Petracca the games two most influential players, the only time in that game that we faltered was when Pitto spent time off late getting further attention, TDK was forced into the ruck and Lever was set free to intercept. But for the bulk of the game our MC and coaching tactics delivered two clear wins, despite Gawn's influence he never really dominated, in fact he became frustrated and lost focus at times, we kept him heavily occupied with less respite, thank-you Pitto. Lever was basically ineffective also kept occupied, if he wasn't standing Charlie he was stuck on TDK, sure TDK spent less time in the ruck but the ruck wasn't how he was being used. It was the first real time this season we showed we had a Plan B against a team that has disposed of us repeatedly.

MC and tactics, have always been, and will always be, horses for courses.

Yep.
We talk a bit about variables in this debate. Things like ‘luck’ are a variable, and probably more than any other football code, because of the oval shape of the ball, luck plays a big part. If a hit-out doesn’t go directly to a player and hits the ground luck comes into play. The bounce can determine which side has the advantage.

But luck is just one of many variables that determine the result of matches.
If a club has built a list that is looming as a premiership contender (which I think everyone agrees…is ‘us’) then there are a couple of other factors that will determine the success of any campaign. Amongst the most important are ‘stability’ and ‘flexibility’

Stability-that depends on maintaining a healthy list. It can be affected by injury and also loss of form. That’s where the old chestnut ‘luck’ comes into play again.

Flexibility-that’s the importance of a list that contains a group of players that can fill specific roles but also some who can perform multiple roles. It’s the ability to experiment with combinations and tactics so that come finals time you are ready to go with a healthy list and a healthy set of strategies.

But flexibility also has a role in ‘thinking’.
This debate can probably be divided into two camps.

I don’t think there is anyone on here who would argue that two rucks is always the best option.

So, the difference of opinion is between some who think that one ruck is ‘always’ the best option (in fact the only option)  and those who think there are times when one option will work and others when two options should be explored.

That’s a difference in ‘fixed’ and ‘flexible’ thinking.

The only sure thing is we need to sort it out before September.