AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

[kruddler]

MBB posted an interesting "statistical analysis" of Tom De Koning's game against Essendon that ventured into the one or two rucks territory.

Champion Data notes De Koning has averaged 21.1 AFL Player Ratings points, 22.3 disposals, 14.7 contested possessions, 9.7 clearances, 4.7 centre-bounce clearances and 6.7 score involvements in that stretch. It ranks him No.1 among the season averages of all rucks throughout that run.

Why then does Tom not appear in the AFL's mid year All-Australian team?  I'm pretty sure that his name wasn't mentioned during the  televised All-Australian selectors' meeting.  Perhaps Stats Insider's AFL Player Ratings can shed some light.  They use a combination of votes, performance assessments and statistical data to rank players.  Tom is currently the ninth ranked ruckman in their ratings (Goldstein is 16th, one behind Pittonet).  I think that by considering factors other than statistics, Stats Insider's ratings better reflect players' performances and influence.  It could be argued that Stats Insider's ratings are less objective than Champion Data's numbers-based system but Champion Data's statistical categories, definitions, weightings, etc are subjective.

Then there's;

Carlton is a much better turnover team when De Koning is playing as a sole ruck. According to Champion Data, the team's scores from turnover differential is -5.3 when Pittonet is paired with De Koning, but +25.4 when De Koning plays alone.


If that's what the statistics tell us, then it must be true.  BUT, is there a causal relationship between scores from turnover and whether  Tom plays a lone hand or with Pitto?  Possibly, but there are other factors like the opposition, the form of other players, umpiring and our other scoring processes.  If we are dominating the clearances and scoring heavily from stoppages, there will limited opportunity to score from turnovers.  And that's where relying of football statistics can lead you astray.

As flawed as the statistical categories and their definitions may be, footy stats may help to identify trends, what's working and what's not, and where game plans or structures might need a tweak, but only if the limitations of the data are understood.  Furthermore, those statistics should not be viewed in isolation but in the context of the full range of factors that influence footballers' performances and the results of games.

Adam Saad has played eight games this season for seven wins.  He was subbed off in the game we lost.  Statistically, if Adam plays the whole game, we will win.  Let's see how that holds up 

A couple things from this essay i want to point out....
1. The AA televised thing.
I didn't see it. I've read things about it though. Weiterings name wasn't mentioned in the broadcast either, however, Buckley, who is one of the selectors, said his name was absolutely mentioned and was in his team in fact, but that not everything made the broadcast.
That being said, there was talk during last game about TDK being in line for AA honours. He is starting to get noticed. Maybe his name was spoken about but not televised as well. We don't know.

2. Scores from turnovers aka much better team.
This i have issue with...and you correctly highlighted this too.
You can only score so many goals in a game. If you are good in one area, you are lacking in another.
So scores from turnover is up when TDK plays, which is fine.
However, that also means scores from stoppages are down. Which could mean that when Pitto plays we get more/better clearances and goals from clearances so we don't need to score from stoppages.
That all makes sense to the casual observer too. Pittonets #1 string is ruck craft....and less so chasing and pressuring around the ground. Which is opposite to TDK. He is more athletic and more valuable around the ground albeit less so in terms of ruck craft.
There are many ways to skin a cat and looking at one stat up and the other down is not good or bad, simply different.

3. re Saad...
same can basically be said about Fogarty. He is 17-2 or something ridiculous over the past 2 seasons.
Correlation rather than causation.
.....but its fun none the less.