AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

[Lods]

Remember our chat about sample size of data....thats what is important.

Any individual game can be an anomoly.
Look at the same information, over weeks and years and you will get trends that 'absorb' these anomolies.

For example, look at the results this week. Look who won, who lost and the margin. Use that information to tell me who the best team is.
Now, if that is the only data you have, what information could you get out of that in terms of overall strength of any one team relative to another? Relative to last week? Last year? Last decade?

Our first 5 games of R13 were this....
North Melbourne won.
Richmond won.
Hawthorn won
Brisbane won
St. Kilda won

Based on that and that alone, you would think that those teams should be in the top half of the league (they won, same amount of teams lost, so they are top half).
Based on that, you would probably look at the margin each team won by....which would rank them in this order....
Brisbane
North Melbourne
Richmond
Hawthorn
St. Kilda

Extrapolate that out and you would assume that Brisbane and North Melbourne are the most successful in recent years as they had the best margin.

In isolation, thats all you have.

Then you look at the ladder...
12th - Hawthorn
13th - Brisbane
14th - St. Kilda
17th - Richmond
18th - North Melbourne

That paints a completely different picture.

Then go back and look at where they finished last year.
Look at average finishing position over the past 10, 20, 50, 150 years.
Look at finals made, flags won...
Eventually you will get a better understanding of who is actually good now, last year, over the past decade or 2, 50 or 150 years.

You see the point?
More data gives you a better understanding.

Don't throw out any particular stat because of their low frequency. Just get more data before using it.
There is more hitout to advantage then there are goals.
Do we deduce that Elijah Hollands is the best goal kicker in the league because he kicked 3 goals this week?
Is Charlie and Harry just average forwards because they didn't kick as many?
Is McGovern as good a forward as Harry given they kicked the same amount of goals?
No, get more data. It will show you trends and give you better information.

Try this little exercise Kruds.

Go back over the last 50 years and look at our season goal tallies

I suspect what the 'extended data' will give you is a wide range of scores,

They'll be affected by

Our ability at the time
Pesonnel available
Coaches
Game plans
The way the games is played.
Rule changes.... and a host of other factors.

Each of these variables also affect the statistics of teams and individuals.
You often see a team change tack mid season and a weakness in the first half of the season becomes a strength in the second half..or at least not the same issue.

Watch Melbourne in the second half of the year....
With Petracca missing some may step up and increase their individual stats, others will find an extra burden and attention and their stats may actually drop...and that's just the effect of one player.

Football stats are more likely to have a very limited life span as variables affect the way the game is played.