AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne

[DJC]

It's the nature of the modern game, I wouldn't read too much into the turnovers unless some has drastically different figures from the wider AFL averages, Fans think everybody should be going at 80%, it's a fantasy for most players week in week out, 80% is a highlight game.

On the figures, people think I'm anti-Fantasia but at the moment for a player of Fantasia's experience his numbers are shocking, no matter how cheaply he has arrived the team has to have even contributors or it fatigues everybody else. Owies, Cunningham or Fogarty's work rate is worth 10x the odd Fantasia highlight, even if they didn't have the same goal assists.

Actually, Fantasia's numbers aren't "shocking" if you look at the play and not just the statistics.

As David King has highlighted, we are using chains of handballs in different scenarios; forward handballs when there's an opportunity to run, lateral handballs to find a free player, etc.  You will have also noticed handballs backwards over the player's shoulder.  Fantasia has been playing deep in defence and he has taken possession with no likelihood of going forward apart from a dump kick.  In that situation, he has handballed over his shoulder (as have several of his teammates so it's probably something they practice.  The ball may reach a teammate but, more often than not, there's disputed possession and a ball up.  That is counted as an ineffective disposal because it didn't reach the intended target, even though there may never have been an intended target.  Handballing over the shoulder, perhaps to a voice, is a higher percentage play, in that situation, than a kick or handball forward.  We invariably have an outnumber behind the ball running the ball out of defence and can force a stoppage.  We can then set up in the knowledge that we're more likely to win the clearance.

So, what goes down as an ineffective disposal is actually a rehearsed, higher percentage play than the other options available.

I think that it was Newman or Hollands who passed to Saad only to have Vlastuin leave his man and effect a spoil.  It was a short kick and, as Saad didn't win possession, it's counted as an ineffective disposal.  If it had been a long kick with the same outcome, it would go down as an effective disposal.  In both cases, the kicker doesn't determine the outcome.

Cuningham and Fogarty have different roles to Fantasia so there's not really much point in comparing them.  Owies and Fantasia have similar roles, and both have been off the pace in my view.  Owies managed to hit the scoreboard against the Tigers but Fantasia's kicking for goal has been unreliable and that is usually one of his strongpoints.  Fantasia has had more of the ball but Owies has never been high possession winner.  Fantasia hasn't made the most of his possessions but, as outlined above, disposal efficiency isn't a terribly reliable statistic.  Fantasia and Owies are neck and neck when it comes to clangers, Owies has more turnovers, Fantasia has more intercepts, and Owies has more tackles.

Is Owies' workrate worth 10X Fantasia's?  No, if anything Fantasia's workrate is higher because he's the one getting back in defence as Owies was doing last season.  Perhaps that's a fitness thing and Owies will improve as he gets games under his belt, Fantasia should improve too.

Owies' two goals may save him but, if Motlop is fit, Owies and Fantasia are the two players most likely to make way.