10-16-2023, 02:25 AM
The bias is alleviated to some degree by the fact that the 2 polls were conducted by 2 different outfits, Ipsos and YouGov. It's also worth noting the overall conclusions by those individuals quoted, who are experienced in understanding the numbers. Samples include :
More importantly, he said, when "even … a pretty small sample" produces a lopsided result of more than 70 per cent, for example, you can be "pretty confident" the real result is above 50 per cent.
However, they endorsed the YouGov poll in particular as the best available measure, and each agreed there was no scientific evidence to suggest anything other than broad support among First Nations Australians.
"So the sample is very consistent with the idea that Indigenous voters strongly supported the Voice at the time taken, and implies that they are likely to still do so."
Mr Bowe said the results of the two polls were "lopsided enough that we can say with confidence that the Indigenous Voice has strong Indigenous support," even if the exact figure was in question.
More importantly, he said, when "even … a pretty small sample" produces a lopsided result of more than 70 per cent, for example, you can be "pretty confident" the real result is above 50 per cent.
However, they endorsed the YouGov poll in particular as the best available measure, and each agreed there was no scientific evidence to suggest anything other than broad support among First Nations Australians.
"So the sample is very consistent with the idea that Indigenous voters strongly supported the Voice at the time taken, and implies that they are likely to still do so."
Mr Bowe said the results of the two polls were "lopsided enough that we can say with confidence that the Indigenous Voice has strong Indigenous support," even if the exact figure was in question.