AFL Rd 22 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

[kruddler]

Is that HTA a statistic that's even worth worrying about.

In  Pittonet's case it's a little over 2 a quarter
In TDK's case a little under one a quarter.

After the first possession there's no guarantee where the ball ends up, so essentially, a play that has such limited impact on a game is pretty irrelevant.

Its worth worrying about more than hitouts is it not?

The way i think about it is like this. Its an oversimplification, but it holds true over time (even if individual contests don't always hold true)

There is a 50-50 contest Pittonet wins you that contest 20% of the time.
TDK about 9% of the time.
Marshall was halway inbetween at 14%.
57% of contests has no winner.

So from all the non-HTA contests (57%) you have a 50-50 battle from your mids that they must win. Lets say they win 50% of them only. So 28% is won by your midfield.

Overall, your rucks won you 29% of the contests and your mids won you 28% of the contests.

Again, its an oversimplification, but you can see how important getting that head-start is from the ruck.

Overall we have won half from ruck, half from mids.