05-05-2023, 05:59 AM
(05-05-2023, 05:08 AM)Mav link Wrote:How will Trump fare if he’s found to have raped E Jean Carroll by the jury in the civil trial? Assuming Trump doesn’t change his mind about testifying, final addresses will be next.
The smart money would be on Trump losing. E Jean Carroll apparently gave compelling evidence that Trump had manoeuvred her into a cubicle at the Bergdorf Goodman store in New York, pinned her against the wall and raped her. Pretty much immediately afterwards, she complained of it to a couple of her friends but was hesitant to report it to police fearing Trump would make her life hell. Criminal proceedings were time barred but after the Me-Too movement the NY legislature allowed a once-only opportunity for sexual assault victims to sue in the civil courts and she took advantage.
E Jean Carroll is a somebody as she was a long-time agony aunt for Elle magazine and comes across as a chatty, funny lady. Trump’s lawyer apparently conducted the sort of scorched earth cross-examination that could well have alienated the jury. Unfortunately for Trump, his lawyer seems to have spent part of his time attacking her over something that may well be Trump’s motive for raping her. The lawyer tried to exploit her account that she had tried to parry Trump’s dominant behaviour via humour. She said he wanted her to try a slip but she joked with him that it would look better on him and invited him to try it on while draping it over his shoulder. If there’s anything we’ve learnt about Trump’s malignant narcissism, we now know that was unfortunately destined to lead to him becoming enraged and taking revenge.
Trump refused to testify or even be present during the trial but parts of his video deposition were played. He resorted to his usual defence when accused of sexually assaulting women. He claimed E Jean Carroll wasn’t his type. In other words, she was too ugly to rape. In addition, he denied he’d ever met her. He was shown a picture taken at a charity event of Trump talking to a woman. Trump identified the woman as his former wife Marla Maples and he agreed she was definitely his type. Unfortunately for Trump, the woman in the picture was E Jean Carroll who was a looker back in the day.
The knife was twisted by the Plaintiff’s lawyer who played the famous “grab them by the pussy” tape and called a couple of women who had been molested by Trump. One woman had had the misfortune of being seated next to him on a plane and Trump, without making any attempt to talk to her, tried to explore her nether regions and kiss her.
It seems the only thing that could save Trump would be a majority of the jury being MAGA fanatics and the odds of that aren’t great in NY.
So, what happens if he loses? Sure, he’ll appeal and claim he’s the victim of a hoax. But surely he’d be dead politically. Imagine political ads calling him a proven rapist. He needs more than his MAGA fans in a general election. Kiss goodbye to the votes of suburban women or values-voting independents. He might become a hero for incels and those who love Jordan Pietersen and the Tate brothers, but I suspect he already had their support along with the racists anyway. Growing his vote would be a harder task.
I think he will survive politically. He is Teflon Man to his rabid MAGA fans and a conviction in this case or in any of the cases likely to be brought agains him this year will only entrench the view that he is being persecuted for his attempts to "drain the swamp'.
I believe his hardcore followers number approximately 30 million - not enough to win an election but enough to frighten members of the GOP from standing against him for the party nomination.
I expect him to be nominated as the GOP candidate for the next election and to be defeated decisively once again.