04-19-2023, 07:30 AM
How good is a player as a ruck? Not around the ground, but throw the ball up in the air and getting it to a teammate. Back to basics stuff.
People try and evaluate this and look at 1 stat column.....the wrong stat column.....hitouts.
Now, some people are starting to learn to look at hitouts to advantage....but that doesn't tell the whole story. Why? Someone who rucks for 80% of the game will get more hitouts to advantage than someone who rucks for 20% of the game. Sydney will have more ruck contests due to their style of play and the size of their ground compared to say west coast. So how do we compare apples with apples?
Its a stat/ratio/percentage i came up with a few years ago that people didn't embrace and/or understand.
So let me make this very simple.....then i'll give examples.
If you want to know how likely a ruckman is going to give your player the ball via hitout you simple need to work out how many total ruck contests he attends. Once you know that, you work out how many total hitouts to advantage he has. End result is what % of ruck contests that this player attends will result in a hitout to advantage - ie ruck contest you hit to your own player.
If a certain player takes the ruck, XX% of the time it goes to us. Aka, 'Ruck contest to advantage' aka 'RCA%'
Its so simple, i don't know why its not used as an actual stat.
So here are sprinkling of players that are largely regarded as either great rucks, (former) Carlton players, or KP/rucks...or a combination of.
Player (RCA%) - Career stats - all players have had a minimum of 100 career ruck contests.
Gawn (18%)
Sean Darcy (16.2)
Nic Nat (15.7)
Pittonet (14.5)
Grundy (14.3)
A. Phillips (13.2)
TDK (10.5)
English (9.7)
Silvagni (9.0)
Franklin (9.0)
Young (8.7)
Hawkins (7.1)
Naughton (6.1)
J. Riewoldt (4.9)
H. McKay (4.6)
So thats the data. That is AFL stats. No doctoring/omitting of figures. Its up to you to work out what that means.
In terms of Carlton....i take 2 things out of that.
1. Pittonet is (still) underrated in ruck craft. In 2023, he was going at 18.6% before he got injured, which is better than every other person on the list.....including all those AA's....and he was coming off a poor off-season. In 2022, he was 3rd behind Darcy and Gawn (yes, still ahead of Grundy....)
2. Silvagni is (still) underrated in ruck craft compared to TDK. For all Jacks 'limitations' compared to TDK, out of 100 contests, he will be 1.5 hitouts to advantage behind TDK thats it. He will get more clearances once the ball hits the deck than TDK to quickly make up for it and get extras as well. IMO, he also offers much more around the ground as well. Unfortunately, stats wise its a lot harder to compare without making assumptions.
Now once again, this is a RUCK CONTEST comparison only.
Debate about who is the best ruckman often centers around how good they are around the ground,
The only thing needed for a complete picture is the flip side of that, which the AFL do not keep track of, and that is 'ruck contests resulting in a hitout to advantage for the opposition team.' Thats equivalent to RC to advantage for and RC to advantage against. Maybe in a few years, the AFL will adopt my stat, and introduce the opposing one. Then we can get a fair comparison for the first time in history.
People try and evaluate this and look at 1 stat column.....the wrong stat column.....hitouts.
Now, some people are starting to learn to look at hitouts to advantage....but that doesn't tell the whole story. Why? Someone who rucks for 80% of the game will get more hitouts to advantage than someone who rucks for 20% of the game. Sydney will have more ruck contests due to their style of play and the size of their ground compared to say west coast. So how do we compare apples with apples?
Its a stat/ratio/percentage i came up with a few years ago that people didn't embrace and/or understand.
So let me make this very simple.....then i'll give examples.
If you want to know how likely a ruckman is going to give your player the ball via hitout you simple need to work out how many total ruck contests he attends. Once you know that, you work out how many total hitouts to advantage he has. End result is what % of ruck contests that this player attends will result in a hitout to advantage - ie ruck contest you hit to your own player.
If a certain player takes the ruck, XX% of the time it goes to us. Aka, 'Ruck contest to advantage' aka 'RCA%'
Its so simple, i don't know why its not used as an actual stat.
So here are sprinkling of players that are largely regarded as either great rucks, (former) Carlton players, or KP/rucks...or a combination of.
Player (RCA%) - Career stats - all players have had a minimum of 100 career ruck contests.
Gawn (18%)
Sean Darcy (16.2)
Nic Nat (15.7)
Pittonet (14.5)
Grundy (14.3)
A. Phillips (13.2)
TDK (10.5)
English (9.7)
Silvagni (9.0)
Franklin (9.0)
Young (8.7)
Hawkins (7.1)
Naughton (6.1)
J. Riewoldt (4.9)
H. McKay (4.6)
So thats the data. That is AFL stats. No doctoring/omitting of figures. Its up to you to work out what that means.
In terms of Carlton....i take 2 things out of that.
1. Pittonet is (still) underrated in ruck craft. In 2023, he was going at 18.6% before he got injured, which is better than every other person on the list.....including all those AA's....and he was coming off a poor off-season. In 2022, he was 3rd behind Darcy and Gawn (yes, still ahead of Grundy....)
2. Silvagni is (still) underrated in ruck craft compared to TDK. For all Jacks 'limitations' compared to TDK, out of 100 contests, he will be 1.5 hitouts to advantage behind TDK thats it. He will get more clearances once the ball hits the deck than TDK to quickly make up for it and get extras as well. IMO, he also offers much more around the ground as well. Unfortunately, stats wise its a lot harder to compare without making assumptions.
Now once again, this is a RUCK CONTEST comparison only.
Debate about who is the best ruckman often centers around how good they are around the ground,
The only thing needed for a complete picture is the flip side of that, which the AFL do not keep track of, and that is 'ruck contests resulting in a hitout to advantage for the opposition team.' Thats equivalent to RC to advantage for and RC to advantage against. Maybe in a few years, the AFL will adopt my stat, and introduce the opposing one. Then we can get a fair comparison for the first time in history.