AFL Rd 5 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

[laj]

The level of disappointment in a performance is often reflective of the expectations going into the game.
I expected it to be a tough task, so I’m probably a little less disappointed than some. Even so, that was horrendous. 
The problem is that because we’re the first game of the round we’ll be under the microscope for longer. What we need is for a team like St Kilda to crash and take the focus off.
As it is…There are total meltdowns across Carlton social media forums and facebook pages. The folks are angry. Comments have been turned off. The ‘kumbaya’ crowd are out denouncing those who are not ‘real’ supporters because they’re being a bit (rightly so) critical. It’d be funny if it wasn’t so tragic.

In the cold light of day that was a real wake-up call.
An aberration?
We’ll see!
The post-mortems will last a few days (we tend to discuss the losses in a bit more depth than the wins).
So a couple of points…
Could it be that the much-maligned Mitch McGovern is actually an essential component of success for this side.
He was missing as North piled on goals at the end of that game and missing again as Adelaide put the cleaners through us last night. It’s hard to know how much advance warning we had for that ‘out’ but a defence that was rock solid a few weeks ago looks very shaky. Sure, their midfield superiority puts the defence under pressure, but McGovern is an important part of the structure and when he’s missing it throws an extra burden on our other tall defenders. With Docherty also out, it made a huge difference to our ability to resist, and Adelaide took full advantage. The problem is that McGovern is a bit brittle, and an extended period without injury is probably wishful thinking.

I get the argument Kruddler is making about Silvagni and the ruck situation. It’s a bit of a blancing issue…a robbing Peter to pay Paul. The issue is that rucking will take its toll and while we gain in some areas we perhaps lose a degree of effectiveness with Jack in other roles. (He was playing in defence and saved a goal at one stage last night). Rucking also wears him down as his finish to 2022 showed. It’s not sustainable. Pittonet is struggling to stay on the field. TDK is a mile off reaching the potential we suspect he might have, and any long-term contract on big money would be a huge mistake. Sign him on a two-year, deal or let another club make that mistake.
So, the rucking situation is a worry.

Just to shoot a few Bambis.
-Cripps has been going OK but just seems to have lost a bit of the explosiveness he had last year. Doesn’t seem as quick, and that may correspond to a niggly injury of some sort.
-We know how awesome Charlie can be, but he’ll never quite be the best version of himself with some of his second efforts. Often if he loses that initial contest his backup is not that intense.
-Harry is a bit of a panic merchant and makes some dumb decisions (and executes poorly) in rushed situations.
-Saad is brilliant, the least of our worries, but his tackles don’t always stick, and players have got through him a couple of times in recent weeks.
Apart from that…the small forwards are ‘almost’ players, flashing in and out of then game. Motlop could be very dangerous if he just tidies it up a bit. That will come with game time.
The mids just need to find some consistency and that’s difficult with the injury situation. The group need a few games together. I suspect Hewett’s hand injury was much worse than first reported and he may still be struggling a bit with that. Walsh will be better with games under his belt.

But the reality is that most of the above-mentioned players are our strength. There are a few players on the fringe who just aren’t good enough and when given the opportunity don’t measure up. If the team is going well we can probably carry and disguise those players. When things are going poorly, like last night, those deficiencies stand out.

So, in summary.
Forget that performance,
Get out of Adelaide if you’ve gone there for the game.
Don’t watch the footy shows this week…
and reset.

Saw it coming and tipped Adelaide. Helped my tipping immensely.

After following Carlton for 60 years you get an idea when they aren't going to turn up to play. No-one does "not turning up to play" better than Carlton, even in premiership years. We had 2 worse losses than last night in 1995. As long as they break last night down, go over what was wrong, then just focus on next week. It is the first loss. It'd not about the loss, it's about the rebound and what we learnt. We can get overworked up about one loss in a 23 game season. Stinkers will happen at near all sides. Geelong was 5-4 after 9 rounds last year.