(09-22-2022, 10:19 PM)spf link Wrote:I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.
Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.
I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?
It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.
$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.
Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?
Most of the discussion on the war has taken place in the General Discussion thread, but maybe it's better to have a distinct thread.
I guess the main problem with that idea is the logistical issues involved.
Russians leaving the front line are heading in the direction of home.
Crossing into Ukraine held territory would be a fairly dangerous and risky proposition.
Letting the participants know of the benefits would also be difficult...there'd be apprehension as to how legitimate such a scheme was.
And probably most importantly it would mean leaving family behind.
The situation is poised at a particularly dangerous point.
A possibly ailing Putin is backed in a corner facing pressure from Ukranian advances, right wing hawks who want him to go a lot harder, and now growing anti-war sentiments amongst the general popualtion.
If he is in fact terminally ill (nothing concrete, just observations he's not well) he becomes more dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Referendums in the next week in breakaway sections of Ukraine will almost certainly vote for incorporation into Russia.
Attacks on these areas by Ukrainians then become attacks on Russia in Russian eyes.
A declaration of war against Ukraine rather than the limp 'special military' operation may follow.
The threat of the use of a tactical nuclear device becomes an possibility.
Does NATO then get involved with some response?
The problem is that the Russian ground forces have had such difficulty in Ukraine that they would certainly struggle against a full NATO force should they become involved.
The Russian 'hordes' are not going to sweep across Europe, they never were.
That leaves the Russians with a scary option...they wont be able to fight such a war in a conventional manner.
The unknown in a wider conflict is the reaction of countries like China ( I suspect they'd be happy to sit back and pick up the pieces.)