Brownlow Medal 2022

[crashlander]

It was much worse than a random selection would be. Probability theory suggests there should have been at least 2 successes from 12 selections.

I went to the effort of modelling our success mathematically. Assuming the players were selected randomly, the only way I could get an expected value as bad as our actual selections was to have the probability of success equalling 1 in 20. That suggested that expected number to be 1.45 players. Rounding gives us 1.

A probability of 1 in 15 suggests we should have got 1.93 players, which would be rounded to 2.

This model is a random selection. The selection process should not be random: most recruiters would have a good knowledge of the draft cohort, especially the top few. This sort of outcome is incredibly poor.