China

[ElwoodBlues1]

This is a very good, recent appraisal of the military threat China poses to Australia:

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publicatio...s-military

Another important factor is that, apart from oppressing its own citizens, China's military hasn't been involved in a shooting war since the middle of last century.

Good article, however China seem on course to fulfill most of those objectives and Taiwan is the big domino that if it falls opens up the Pacific and us to more intimidation especially economically.
China and India recently exchanged pleasantries on the border and from memory 20 odd Indian troops or police were killed so while they haven't been in battle with anyone they don't mind skirmishes and are just looking for an excuse to escalate and test boundaries.
They are an expansionist nation who need to be stopped before they take Taiwan.
Imho that article didn't say anything to convince me that China won't be owning Taiwan sooner than later and that the USA are a sure thing to intervene.