China

[Mav]

Don't military contracts have a bit of a history of blowing out? After all, wasn't that the LNP's justification for cancelling the contract for the French subs, even though the defence department officials in charge of it stated that the contract was within expectations? And we ended up paying out $5b to the French for nothing in return. And let's not even mention the F-35 deal ... Oh, what the hell, let's mention it:

Australia spent billions on jet fighters off the plan. Now, we’re having trouble even flying them, The Conversation.

Continuous upgrades at tremendous cost
...
Most of Australia’s fleet is planned to be upgraded to be broadly similar to the US fleet, although this will cost even more money. It may seem strange to have to pay extra to upgrade a brand new aircraft on delivery, but that’s not the end of the problems. There is another complication.

Australia’s latest F-35s (as well as the upgraded older ones) use the Block 3F software, a digital operating system designed by Lockheed Martin. It is proving to be just as costly to keep updated as the jets themselves.

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, the US Air Force’s deputy chief of staff, has serious concerns about the outdated software, saying last year, "the block that is coming off the line right now is not a block that I feel good about going up against China and Russia".

He noted recent war games focused on the prospect of defending Taiwan from Chinese air attack showed "Every [F-35] that rolls off the line today is a fighter that we wouldn’t even bother putting into these scenarios."

This means Australia’s F-35s appear not to be as good as the potential opposition. It seems Australia is paying to lose the air combat battle.

The only solution: another upgrade
So, what is the solution to these seemingly intractable and eye-wateringly expensive problems?

Lockheed Martin is advocating a major operating system software upgrade: the Block 4. It might not be surprising to hear this is now running years late, with delivery expected in 2027 or later. It is also significantly over budget.

In a small piece of good news, the last nine F-35 aircraft Australia will get off the production line next year, and may be partly Block 4 compatible. Hinote thinks these F-35s might be capable of fighting against first-rate adversaries.

The bad news is the full Block 4 upgrade now requires a major engine upgrade or even a new engine. So, this means Australia’s current F-35 fleet might not be able to use all the Block 4 software until after 2030 – and at a substantial cost.

Buying another hugely expensive upgrade for a brand new fighter is actually the cheap way out. The US Air Force’s focus is already shifting to the Block 4 upgraded aircraft. Countries like ours with older F-35s will be left to fend for ourselves if we don’t embrace the new technology, as well.

But the costs do keeping going up, and the problems with these F-35 jets haven’t seemed to stop. It’s the price of buying off the plan, which anyone who’s bought a house or apartment would surely know.

Why would you want Labor pouring infinite amounts of money into defence procurement when apparently Labor has difficulty preventing blowouts?