Election 2022 (Poll added)

[DJC]

I'll have a guess at the result, Libs to lose 7-8 seats and lose Government.
In the Senate be a bit more of a mess with Labor getting some help from the Greens who may add another senator but still needing the support of the following,
Lambie, Hansen and Nick X.
Reckon Lambie and Hansen might have a mate each in the Senate but NickX will be on his lonesome.
So Albo to win but pushing his ideas through the Senate might need some work with the independents.Tough times ahead with  inflation, interest rates, wars etc and I reckon one term might be all Albo gets ,not a great time to govern imho.

I've been meaning to comment on this post and your courage in making such a bold prediction EB.  Even the seasoned poltical analysts wouldn't have been brave enough to make such a call.

So, how have we ended up?

Labor has won 75 seats and is leading in Macnamara by 22% so there’s little doubt that Labor will be a majority government.  On the way, the Liberals lost 10 seats to Labor, 6 to independents, and 2 to the Greens.  Labor lost one seat to an independent (but there's a question mark over that candidate's eligibility.

The Senate still has a way to go but at this stage the Liberals will have 29 senators, Labor will have 26, the Greens will have 12, the Nationals will have 3 (plus their Queensland LNP senators counted as Liberals), the Lambie Network will have 2, PHON will have two, David Pocock will be a senator and UAP could have 1 senator.

Nick Xenophon didn’t get any traction, and I think that was predictable given his past history and failure to deliver on anything.
David Pocock’s election is a bit of a surprise but probably not if you live in Canberra.

So, what does that all mean?

The Teal independents will have virtually no influence; Labor won’t need them in the House of Reps and they aren’t represented in the Senate.

Labor won’t have a majority in the Senate but will be able to pass legislation with the support of the Greens.  A quick look at David Pocock’s platform suggests that he would support most government legislation.

Of course, Labor could also pass legislation with the support of the Liberals. The Nationals, PHON, Lambie Network and UAP senators, and David Pocock, will be largely irrelevant.

While the Teal independents played a major role in consigning the happy clapper's pitiful excuse for a government to the rubbish bin of history, they will have limited opportunities to have an impact in the House of Reps.  It will be interesting to see how their impotence plays out at the next election.  Of course, independents Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines and Zali Steggall all won their seats with increased majorities despite not being in a position to influence the previous government.

Actually, I'm very pleased that Zali Steggall was re-elected; anyone who can end the political career of the Budgie Smuggler deserves a couple of terms in Parliament