Yes, the voting demographics dont change.
1. Oldies tend to vote Labor. Pension and health related generally. Its why the pandemic response was lock it down hard and fast according to labor. Protect your rusted on voters, and they will thank you for it.
2. Public sector workers tend to vote labor. Protects their jobs and their employee rights generally but more of these people have been alienated by the hard line stance taken to the jab than anything else, and I think the consequence is that a portion of these will swing away.
3. Youngsters. Idealists these days more likely to go Greens than one of the big 2 but this benefits Labor also. The recent issues and future problems are difficult to vote on, which means the last 15 years is going to be taken into account by most voters. This leads me to believe that they will vote independent more likely.
4. Corporate types, and business owners are usually liberal/national types. Protect the bottom line, and I think we will see very few of them swing away from liberal.
5. The mixed messaging will sway a few away from the people currently residing in power and that will depend on how the local electorates have been split in the past. This will probably mean preferences will make a big difference this time around.
I expect more people to swing in this election than ever, HOWEVER, those swingers are more likely to vote independent because if they echo my sentiments and are just disillusioned with the status quo, and we are just going to see the independents swell their numbers modestly, at the expense of the bigger types. The "big 2" haven't covered themselves in glory for the entirety of my adult life, and whilst I stay abreast of politics, there is generally a lot of hyperbole about it here and no big issues really. What I find more distasteful, is the way they have behaved with in fighting and PM spilling that has occurred. About 1 of the people I have voted in has retained their Prime Minister status since I started voting and I have voted in at least 5 coming on 6 elections now. That's a very poor return.
My expectation: Labor and Liberals to split about 80 percent of the vote, with one of them doing enough deals to form government at Federal level and likely the status quo to generally remain with Scomo retaining the Prime Minister of Australia title thanks to the independents. I think they are more likely to be in bed with the Liberals than Labor.
At state level, I expect things will go quite similarly to how they are now. You will see a few people swing around, but largely things will remain as is and the balance of power will be held in all states by those currently in power.
Times are a bit tricky. Not too much change usually occurs during a war, with a currently still ongoing pandemic threat in the background, I expect that uncertainty does no one any good, and that things will largely remain unchanged. We are in for a rough ride regardless who gets in anyway based on the tea leaves economically.
1. Oldies tend to vote Labor. Pension and health related generally. Its why the pandemic response was lock it down hard and fast according to labor. Protect your rusted on voters, and they will thank you for it.
2. Public sector workers tend to vote labor. Protects their jobs and their employee rights generally but more of these people have been alienated by the hard line stance taken to the jab than anything else, and I think the consequence is that a portion of these will swing away.
3. Youngsters. Idealists these days more likely to go Greens than one of the big 2 but this benefits Labor also. The recent issues and future problems are difficult to vote on, which means the last 15 years is going to be taken into account by most voters. This leads me to believe that they will vote independent more likely.
4. Corporate types, and business owners are usually liberal/national types. Protect the bottom line, and I think we will see very few of them swing away from liberal.
5. The mixed messaging will sway a few away from the people currently residing in power and that will depend on how the local electorates have been split in the past. This will probably mean preferences will make a big difference this time around.
I expect more people to swing in this election than ever, HOWEVER, those swingers are more likely to vote independent because if they echo my sentiments and are just disillusioned with the status quo, and we are just going to see the independents swell their numbers modestly, at the expense of the bigger types. The "big 2" haven't covered themselves in glory for the entirety of my adult life, and whilst I stay abreast of politics, there is generally a lot of hyperbole about it here and no big issues really. What I find more distasteful, is the way they have behaved with in fighting and PM spilling that has occurred. About 1 of the people I have voted in has retained their Prime Minister status since I started voting and I have voted in at least 5 coming on 6 elections now. That's a very poor return.
My expectation: Labor and Liberals to split about 80 percent of the vote, with one of them doing enough deals to form government at Federal level and likely the status quo to generally remain with Scomo retaining the Prime Minister of Australia title thanks to the independents. I think they are more likely to be in bed with the Liberals than Labor.
At state level, I expect things will go quite similarly to how they are now. You will see a few people swing around, but largely things will remain as is and the balance of power will be held in all states by those currently in power.
Times are a bit tricky. Not too much change usually occurs during a war, with a currently still ongoing pandemic threat in the background, I expect that uncertainty does no one any good, and that things will largely remain unchanged. We are in for a rough ride regardless who gets in anyway based on the tea leaves economically.
"everything you know is wrong"
Paul Hewson
Paul Hewson