Election 2022 (Poll added)

[LP]

I wouldnt be so sure of that EB, many electorates where the gov had a strong hold are crapting the pants. I'm tipping Labour will win this in a landslide with many blue ribbon seats falling Labours way

Traditionally, about 80% of voters are rusted on, the other 20% are variable.

It's why there are certain seats around the country that are tells.

In WA Hasluck for example is typically been rusted on +7.5% Liberal, but at the moment early poling has suggested it is 50/50 after a massive swing, but there are local issues and also a redistribution of boundaries that are affecting this result so I'm not sure it's that clear. In the TV debates the Lib boosters tried to point out to the Hasluck 50/50 split on Lib/Lab was a sign of a win, but in reality it's a about a -7% swing against the Coalition which is massive.

I suspect the more disenchanted the voters become with the likes of Scomo and Albo, the more they will vote on any local issues they can identify. I think this is why the Libs have kept blokes like Tugger Tudge under wraps. For that reason I'm not sure if Vic will swing as hard as some expect because Danger Dan is seen as a local issue.

Qld is unreadable, they are just as likely to vote numbat.

NSW want a Scomo and Parrotsay duet so they get all the love and happy clapping they need!

SA might be dead to Scomo after appointing Deves, it hard enough to ID a species in SA let alone a gender!

Some of the Coalition are making out the WA lockdown will cause a problem for Albo, but much of WA when asked about the Lockdown replied "Huh?" Lockdown doesn't mean much when you only drive to town once every six weeks for the big shop!