General Discussions

[Mav]

If progress has been steady all this time, there’s obviously more on the way (stay tuned on that). First, there will be more in the incremental vein, as we have yet to reach the theoretical limits of lithium-ion. For example, when Tesla laid out its plans last year, there were many little things that added up to a hoped-for increase of around 50 percent in vehicle range and decrease of around 50 percent in per-kilowatt-hour cost. That came from cathode material tweaks, a high-silicon-content anode, a larger cylindrical cell design, a redesigned battery pack, and new manufacturing methods. Who knows how long it will take for all this to materialize, though Elon Musk claimed it would only be around three years.

Beyond the incremental, less predictable battery revolutions are also coming to placate the impatient. (Just don’t expect flying cars to be close behind.) The race to develop solid-state batteries that ditch liquid electrolytes—and perhaps also the bulk of the anode—seems to be heating up. That could bring sudden improvements in safety, longevity, or energy density.

Researchers have also long been chasing lithium-air batteries that could realize a huge jump in energy density. And beyond lithium, there are other entirely different chemistries in development out there. At some point, one of them should click for one application or another.

Lithium-ion or not, an explosion of grid-scale battery installations is coming as prices continue to fall. The nascent art of lithium-ion battery recycling is also sure to mature and expand, improving the sustainability of these batteries by recovering and resetting their chemical building blocks.

Adopt cold-fusion-like skepticism of any of these future-looking statements as you please, but today’s batteries aren’t those of 20 or even 10 years ago. The same thing is bound to be true in another 10 years—even if that progress doesn’t come in a single, giant leap with global fanfare.

Eternally five years away? No, batteries are improving under your nose, ArsTechnica