CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

It's only a few percent, you hear and read that often.

It's only a few percent more contagious, it's a few percent less deadly, the vaccines have a few percent less efficacy.

Such is the tale of Omicron, the latest UK data suggests Omicron transmission is up about 10% relative to Delta, up from 21% to 31%. Just 10%, it's not much at all, and yet!

It's amazing what impact a few percent can have, and this is happening under reduced, partial and self-imposed lockdowns, yet there are still pundits asking for things to be thrown wide open, if they do it won't be a few percent, the health system pain will be 2x or 3x the current problem!

What does 2x or 3x look like if what we currently experience is the result of just a 10% change?

Humans are awful at evaluating risk, personal opinion is worthless, while the math is effectively a god despite the derision of the science on social media. A 10% increase in the risk of transmission, a removal of some or all restrictions because we perceive Omicron as less deadly, and we are in our current situation with far more people hurting than ever happened under lockdowns! But the Feds think they will save a dollar, hoorah! Well, that saving seems to be evaporating by the second, too many dodgy economic hypotheses from economic B-Graders again, we suffer this over and over again, while the politicians pork barrel billion$ people can't get a cheap lateral flow test and health workers can't get PPE or masks, all could be solved for the price of a carpark it seems, ............. and yet! :o

The good news is, well perhaps bad news if you are an anti-vaxer, it looks like for any vaccine the 3rd booster is delivering massive efficacy, not only against severe symptoms but also increased prevention, much of the data suggesting between 85% and 98% efficacy for the 3rd shot for any brand of vaccine!