CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK.

All the models have to be judged in a frame of reference for the model, for example some are "if all restrictions are removed", while others base themselves on "restrictions as currently applied" and adopted.

The media just lump all the reporting and modelling in as "like for like" but it isn't, it's not the epidemiologists that are confused or in error, it's the media and also how the media is manipulated for political purposes. But it's pretty easy to cut through all that spin if you choose to do so!

The media will take a worst case scenario and report it as the peak and infer a high probability, when it reality it's the peak with a very low probability. All the predictions fall on a bell curve of some sort, even when you see a hyperbolic or parabolic curve it's usually just a subsection of a larger bell curve.