(10-05-2021, 06:17 AM)madbluboy date Wrote:Define superspreader. The family I know who were infected was from a factory where an infected worker infected 19 people who brought it back to their houses.[member=26]madbluboy[/member] we have to assume protestors won't have themselves tested like the general public, so seven is a lot!
That is probably seven seriously ill, not seven mildly ill or asymptomatic!

So then you extrapolate in the other direction to usual, if serious illness remains at about 15% of cases that means there is about another 46 infected circulating!
At R[sub]0[/sub] = 8.5 they can become more than 3300 in just two cycles of infection!
46 x 8.5 x 8.5 = ~3323 the approximate formula is xR[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] where [sup]n[/sup] is the number of cycles and x is the starting case count.
"Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck ....... Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck"

