CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

I often wonder when the daily new infections stats come out what the real infection rate is in, say, our state?

Effective R[sub]0[/sub] was 1.5 on average for Vic in recent times so the restrictions are working, but they are breaking it down by region now so some areas like the Northern Suburbs or Dandenong / Cranbourne are quite a bit higher at about 3.5.

They can basically tell which areas aren't complying with lockdown restrictions based on the R[sub]0[/sub] calculation for that region!

The raw R[sub]0[/sub] for Delta is now estimated to be above 8.5, so that is basically as bad as polio, measles or chicken pox, but that is an estimate and not the effective R[sub]0[/sub]. Effective R[sub]0[/sub] is a function of all countermeasures offsetting the virus capability. However, the raw R[sub]0[/sub] estimate gives you an idea of how bad things could get if they let it rip in dense unpopulated communities.