CV and mad panic behaviour

[spf]

Just listened to an epidemiologist on radio, they think unless something extraordinary happens NSW will be 2,000 a day before the end of the month, and 10,000 a day by the end of Sept. That is an effective R[sub]0[/sub] = 3.0 every 14 days, if not for the lockdowns and vaccinations the R[sub]0[/sub] would be much higher, at this stage the restrictions have halved the effective transmission rates. But R[sub]0[/sub] = 3.0 still isn't great!

Vic have a very slight chance of not following that trend, and if Vic can't halt the spread it will be almost miracle territory if the same doesn't eventually happen in other states.

The big problem all the states have is non-compliance in the general public, too many people prepared to burn down the farm to get it over with. I suspect people touting that solution are ignorant of the long term effects! :o

I've also heard/read that this Delta variant is problematic because the incubation period is a bit more of a variable, it can turn up in a patient after 72hrs or as long as two weeks! So they expect to start making 14 days the default isolation period for everybody now, Tier 1, 2 , 3 or whatever!

Think that's something? Check out what is happening in Israel. Now 8,000 cases and rising. This is from a country that was an early adopter for vaccinations and had have 60% vaccination rate from March this year. Delta is resetting the agenda.