CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

baggers don't bite, LP is just being contrary because he can't agree to disagree on a hypothetical scenario where we have vaccinated significantly (i can't believe how often i have to repeat this) that at the current rate (bold ticked underlined etc) of adverse reaction to covid and the vaccine we will likely (qualifying statement) see more adverse reactions to the vaccine in the short term (qualifying statement) than we will from covid until (qualifying statement) we let it rip and then and only then will that relationship flip.

So my point is that the crap show surrounding covid is yet to really begin and the video spf showed us that normality is gone and you can get used to lockdowns in the medium term.

Understand?

He may not, can't or won't be able to understand something that is so fundamentally flawed, the assertion about the vaccine severe reactions exceeding COVID acute cases hasn't been correct in the past, isn't correct in the present and won't be correct in the future. It's just fear mongering.

Unlike the accusations made we do know and realise that vaccines aren't perfect, at best they only protect about 90% of the population, with a significant percentage of the population either being unable to take the vaccine or not developing a resistance as a result of having it. That leaves roughly 2,500,000 people vulnerable in Australia alone, and we already have 916 deaths from just over 32,000 COVID cases. Extrapolate the current death rate for the 2,500,000 potential cases. 2,500,000 / 32,000 X 916 = 71,562 deaths

Now, the reality is adverse reactions to vaccines doses is not linear, most who will get a bad reaction get in on the first dose, so 2nd doses can be virtually ignored. That means only half the doses used to vaccinate the population is the critical number.

We have 6 deaths linked to 6,000,000 vaccinations, even if in the grim worst case all the current ICU cases potentially linked to AZ or Pfizer do not make it, that number peaks at 24 per 6,000,000 doses.  We've about 18,000,000 first doses remaining to issue given that not everyone is eligible. So at the current adverse reaction rate, 18,000,000 potential 1st vaccinations, 18,000,000 / 6,000,000 x 24 = 72 deaths

Basic math exposes the folly of the assertion that vaccines at any stage become as deadly as COVID. The numbers might change marginally in some direction for better or worse, but they won't drift from the current trend in a ratio of 1000:1. Globally, even in the best cases scenario, they been able to reduce the death rate in the ratio 100:1, that still leaves 720 potential COVID deaths to 72 potential vaccine deaths, if we leave vaccine deaths at the worst case and COVID deaths at the best case. However, it looks like that 100:1 reduction ratio cannot be sustained and 10:1 is more likely to be the real long term number, and even that depends heavily on resource availability. So 7,200 COVID deaths for 72 vaccine deaths looks realistic possibility.

But of course many have stated this all along, you get vaccinated to protect those around you not just to protect yourself!