07-07-2021, 10:41 PM
(07-07-2021, 10:17 PM)LP link Wrote:That's not really true, the Delta R[sub]0[/sub] is close to 7.0, while the normal COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] is 2.5, these are the base of an exponent n that represents infection cycles, so you know the even if the lethality of Delta is 100x less it would be still equal or more deadly because of the huge number of more people it infects!
R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] if n = 2, then 2.5[sup]2[/sup] = 6.25, the infection grows over six cycles 2.5[sup]6[/sup] approximately as 2.5, 6, 15, 39, 97, 244
R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] if n = 2, then 7[sup]2[/sup] = 49, the infection grows over six cycles 7.0[sup]6[/sup] approximately as 7, 49, 343, 2401, 16807, 117649
The report you reference is really a sly and cynical use of math, sly because reporting a death rate in the absence of a scale is deceptive, cynical because it assumes the listener has no concept of math, exponents and exponential growth, so by reporting small numbers they hope to persuade people for political purposes.
And what is your source for stating an R0 of 7.0?
The rate of reproduction has nothing to do with death numbers LP.
And the proof is in the pudding - you know, actual deaths.
That is where your fear mongering fails entirely.
I've put up the NHS' paper previously, and if you need a hand understanding the data, just ask.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk...ing_17.pdf
Briefing Paper 16 also very good.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

