CV and mad panic behaviour

[flyboy77]

That is perhaps a confusion of the consequences and benefits of vaccination with the fundamental characteristics of the virus.

Regarding virulence:
The R[sub]0[/sub] is a growth factor, Influenza's R[sub]0[/sub] is suggested to be 1.3, normal COVID-19 is about R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.5, the COVID Delta variant R[sub]0[/sub] is initially showing as 7.0. This is massively different because the reproduction number describes exponential growth.

Influenza R[sub]0[/sub] = 1.3, after 4 generations the infection count is just 2.8

COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] = 2.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 16

COVID-19 Delta R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 2401

Even if the COVID Delta variant is 100x less lethal than Influenza it works out just as deadly, unfortunately in the real world COVID-19 Delta it is more deadly/lethal than Influenza.

Also, with a higher the R[sub]0[/sub] a much higher percentage of community resistance must be achieved to reach herd immunity, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.0 requires about 60% resistance, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0 requires about 90% resistance.

The basic math is why the authorities are crapting themselves about the COVID-19 Delta variant.

Thanks teacher for the maths lesson - you arrogant dill. ROFL.

Basic maths or basic modelling?

Models are a function of GIGO - and that's all we've seen from all and sundry wrt the bug. From that dill at the Imperial College to the buffoons who were modelling here last year - orders of magnitude off reality....

The data doesn't lie - Delta/Indian was in full bloom in UK well before the vaxxing was done to any significant degree - as my charts evidence - and not even a blip. Again, cases mean jack if there is no uptick in hospitalisation or deaths.

It was the cry here - and nada - and guess what a new strain surfaces.