(04-14-2021, 04:12 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:You can't be serious?You've confused a debate about models of transmission methods (How) with general purpose epidemiological / statistical models (How Many).
The models -
R[sub]0[/sub] is not a model, it's simply calculated / derived from the case numbers. R[sub]0[/sub] doesn't change if the mix of How changes, R[sub]0[/sub] prediction might be affected by the early How Many models, but once you have tens of millions of cases and millions of deaths the How Many is no longer a model and R[sub]0[/sub] becomes a hard count figure.
The researchers claiming the How is no longer so much about spread via surfaces has no bearing on the How Many which is in the past, it just means you need a better explanation of How so that the How model matches the established How Many count.
Anyway, I'm not sure what you are after, the argument you make supports more lock downs by implying the How is less likely to be a surface and more likely to be air, a far riskier proposition. If you want restrictions eased combined with simple prophylaxis you should be barracking for spread via surfaces as it's dead easy to manage.
"Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck ....... Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck"

