CV and mad panic behaviour

[Thryleon]

Math doesn't make any assumptions, people make assumptions, sometimes people make assumptions because they don't understand the math. It's not just a before or after, it can be either.

Of course the models aren't perfect, but they are still far far better than human assumptions or human common sense.

I learnt in high school that you can get the math wrong by plugging the wrong mix of values in even if you use the correct method to calculating.

I also learnt that statistics relies on consistent outcomes.

This is where it falls over.  Going back to driving for a moment, if you drive a car quickly and further more frequently your chance of being in an accident should rise consistent with the math, but you don't actually assert that and when I raised this point you guickly dismissed it.

The stats don't state this.  They throw out different numbers which is where the anomalies come from.  They assert that the risk is 1 in x will have an accident.  Thing is, you can be 1 in 1 and have an accident, or you can drive your whole life and not be in one.  This isn't about debunking the stats, its just that the stats are a guide not a guarantee and depending on your fortune, you may end up with different outcomes irrespective of what the studies show.

I go back to covid for one moment.  We have a small sample size that is heavily weighted to elderly in assisted living/aged care scenarios as the majority of our cases.  Using stats as a study, the numbers and outcomes are a sample size biased by our sample group are they not?  If so, then we actually don't have sound data to form a reasonable understanding of what outcomes we are going to see with respect to covid.

Its not our data we are using its data from abroad.  If we take a moment to realise our population live in vastly different conditions and have a different health profile perhaps we might end up with the stats not telling us much but what scenario we could end up with instead of what we will end up with.

Does that make sense?