(02-22-2021, 12:03 AM)Thryleon date Wrote:NOTE: when the anti vaxxers advocate a "let it rip" argument with respect to COVID, because it only affects a fraction of the population adversely (figures not quoted, as I am not an advocate of this approach) the argument is much the same.Not at all, firstly the idea that a vaccine is solely responsible for a demise is laughable, and secondly the numbers are drastically different.
Up until today, 205,000,000 COVID vaccinations have been issued, yet the sensationalist media and anti-vaxxers highlight a handful of correlated incidents that could be severe reactions.
"Letting it Rip" would be the equivalent of putting the mutating virus on steroids and expecting a good result. It's a complete misunderstanding of how a virus evolves in relation to how immunity develops. The sort of immunity the anti-vaxxers claim will come from a release requires global deaths to be in the 8 and 9 digit category, 10 or 100 times more than now!
(02-22-2021, 12:03 AM)Thryleon date Wrote:It really isnt as simple as anti vax, pro vax etc. In this case, people are right to be skeptical. Apparently the Pfizer vaccine has not even been granted FDA approval, and is only being administered thanks to state of emergency powers. I understand that this is somewhat necessary evil, but it doesnt sit much better with me.All the current vaccines are approved for emergency use after Stage III trials testing vaccine on 10,000 to 40,000 individuals in double blind, which bypasses Stage IV where perhaps it is required to specifically test vaccine on 100,000 or more individuals are required. But by accelerating the roll-out of emergency use Stage IV is effectively already being conducted in many regions. It's wrong to consider people as guinea pigs when vaccinated in Feb 2021, because some regions have been vaccinating since Dec 2020, it's just that each region has sovereignty over it's own approval process. But globally due to the very high numbers of people already vaccinated the trial is effectively done.
Testing 10,000,000 over 3 months is functionally the same as testing 2,000,000 over a year or 1,000,000 over two years with a good safe margin. Humans struggle with the math because it doesn't fit with personal experience. These are numbers a regular deliberate trial can only dream of!
Keep in mind the anti-vaxxers and media are referring to incidents that happened within minutes or hours of being vaccinated. How many hours have passed for those individuals already vaccinated, I don't know how to do that calculation but it will be billions of hours!
Some vaccines have been given permission to Challenge test, which makes this Stage III and IV process effectively redundant, but is not consider as scientifically rigorous as there is no double blind trial.
Despite the rare events that relate to specifics, this vaccine is already statistically safer than driving, flying, eating nuts, smoking, drinking alcohol, sunbaking, climbing a ladder, taking a shower, having a bath. I realise this doesn't fit with some people's experience, but you can't debate the math, it just is!
You might die, I might die, coincidentally or just because of the injection, or because of anaphylactic shock, but you are more likely to die trying a new food or restaurant this week!
"Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck ....... Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck"

