It won’t be long before the Republicans have 50 seats. They’ll win in both Alaska and North Carolina in the next few days. Unfortunately, the seat in North Carolina was eminently gettable for the Democrats but their candidate was caught out chatting up a woman (not his wife) over a messaging app. Only 48% of the votes in Alaska have been counted, so maybe McConnell will hand back the seat because of obvious fraud.
The Democrats need both seats in the Georgia runoff to take the majority. Even though both parties will have 50 seats in that case, Kamala Harris will have a casting vote as VP.
But if the Democrats win only 1 of the runoff elections, the Republican 51-49 majority would mean McConnell couldn’t lose 1 Republican vote when considering any Bill or the Democrats will be able to pass it. Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, and Lisa Murkowski have shown some willingness to vote with the Democrats, so it is possible the Democrats won’t be shut out completely. On the other hand, there are Blue Dog Democrats such as Joe Manchin who are conservative enough to win in Red States like Montana. They may side with the Republicans on fiscal constraints.
But a mere seat’s advantage has much more importance than just voting down Bills. McConnell will control Senate business. In the current Senate, he was able to kill Bills by refusing to put them before the Senate when he knew they would pass with bipartisan support. He decided what would go before the Senate and when. Republicans would also control the Senate Committees, meaning the Republicans could block Biden’s Cabinet and Judicial nominees. This is what happened with Merrick Garland - he was a moderate nominee who would have had the votes if he went before the Senate but his nomination was blocked in the Judiciary Committee. Then there are sundry investigations Senate Committees could launch in the hope of creating another Benghazi “scandal”.
The Democrats need both seats in the Georgia runoff to take the majority. Even though both parties will have 50 seats in that case, Kamala Harris will have a casting vote as VP.
But if the Democrats win only 1 of the runoff elections, the Republican 51-49 majority would mean McConnell couldn’t lose 1 Republican vote when considering any Bill or the Democrats will be able to pass it. Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, and Lisa Murkowski have shown some willingness to vote with the Democrats, so it is possible the Democrats won’t be shut out completely. On the other hand, there are Blue Dog Democrats such as Joe Manchin who are conservative enough to win in Red States like Montana. They may side with the Republicans on fiscal constraints.
But a mere seat’s advantage has much more importance than just voting down Bills. McConnell will control Senate business. In the current Senate, he was able to kill Bills by refusing to put them before the Senate when he knew they would pass with bipartisan support. He decided what would go before the Senate and when. Republicans would also control the Senate Committees, meaning the Republicans could block Biden’s Cabinet and Judicial nominees. This is what happened with Merrick Garland - he was a moderate nominee who would have had the votes if he went before the Senate but his nomination was blocked in the Judiciary Committee. Then there are sundry investigations Senate Committees could launch in the hope of creating another Benghazi “scandal”.