Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[LP]

I suppose a lot of predictions are based on historical trends and statistical averages, nothing prevents something new happening but the rate of swing is very well known on a per-vote basis, so when they have counted 70% or 80% of votes the trend rarely deviates greatly, at least without some human interference.

Also, ignoring how many have actually voted, the ratio of voting trends tend to be fixed for certain demographics, to see a change we might have to see something really weird happen like 100000 supporters of a particular candidate voted early by mail because this week they were all attending a conference that meant they couldn't be there to vote in person. Ironically, the US is possibly a more likely place for this to occur than many other countries.