CV and mad panic behaviour

[kruddler]

For those waiting for a vaccine, as the politicians keep telling us that it is already organised if successfully developed.

I heard a nice summary of the chances of a successful vaccine from an immunologist talking on a Nature or Science Podcast.

Vaccine in trials proceed at the rate of 1 in 10 for each stage, with typically 4 or 5 stages.

So that would mean;
Stage 1; 10% Proceed to Stage 2
Stage 2: 10% Proceed to Stage 3
Stage 3: 10% Proceed to Stage 4
Stage 4 through 6: About 10% Proceed Manufacture

That is one vaccine out of every ten thousand investigated.

The speaker did reiterate that this will no be the case for the COVID vaccine, why;

Things may be sped up a bit due to the start of a vaccine for SARS a decade (or so) ago. Very similar diseases, so have a bit of a head start of sorts.