CV and mad panic behaviour

[mateinone]

[member=195]mateinone[/member]
re 2nd wave....
Yes, in hindsight he did act too slow.....in hindsight.
But relative to the rest of the world, he is still ahead of schedule.

Of course there are simple reasons why he acted slow.....people were already b!tching and moaning about lockdowns and how we went into them too fast etc etc.
Damned if he does, damned if he didn't.

NOW people are b!tching about staying in them too long. Which i get. But playing devils advocate, he doesn't want to go through all this BS again, so he's trying to kill it within an inch of its life and be done with it for good.

Yes, its possible to do that and come out of lockdown.
Yes, its possible to do that earlier
etc
etc

But, he's over it, we're over it. He's taking things to the nth degree so we can all move on with life.
Is it perfect? No.
Does it reduce the chance of this thing coming back to bite him in the butt? Yes.
Is he copping some flack over it? Yes. Should he? Probably.
Hotel quarantine aside, i give him a B+.

In hindsight?
Even I was able to often run reasonably close simulations through the use of some pretty elementary programming and statistics and I believed as early as June 30 this outbreak was likely to be much worse than the first wave, that the signs were that a lockdown was pretty much inevitable. Now that is not because I had some secret oracle, or I have some ridiculous gift with numbers, others were publishing similar predictions, we all differed and some by wider margins, but most I looked at were suggesting the path was grim without serious action.

Dan has epidemiologists, teams of statisticians, other medical experts, connections into global resources etc... and he needed hindsight to take the first REALLY SUBSTANTIAL action against the virus earlier than late July?
If Dan has the wrong people working for him, then that his his failure also.
I certainly don't understand how he gets a B+ for his response times?

I am in the middle of rebuilding a modelling tool to determine how many people were likely directly impacted by Dan's inaction and what the differences would be if he had brought forward action plans.

I wont go into a detailed a prediction just yet, because I am not happy completely convinced I have the right model in place, but at this early stage the numbers look like they could be around 10,000 infections could have been avoided by bringing in level 3 two weeks earlier.

If it is 10,000 (or thereabouts) is that an acceptable number because Dan didn't want to frustrate people with a lockdown, which he should have been aware was absolutely going to be required.

The other thing that bringing in level 3 restrictions earlier would have done, was provided a longer framework to analyze the impact of those restrictions compared to level 4 and this could be a reason the government is loathe to go back to level  3 now, but this is idiotic, because the signs were showing significant reductions in new infections during the expected time frame after these restrictions were introduced

Of course he gets a clap for eventually moving to level 4 and even for refusing to bow to pressure, I agree level 4  has absolutely been required, When he announced 6 weeks, a friend asked my opinion and I said, 6 weeks is only a line in the sand it absolutely won't be enough so brace for longer.. So I am not asking Dan to come out and remove the quarantine today, I think it is important that it is in place, but his pathway out....
Do you rank the roadmap out a B+?
You are happy with the Melbourne Uni modelling?
You are happy with the explanation of the 14 day period?
You are happy to trust he is not depriving people of their liberties for longer than they need to be (in this future roadmap  I mean)?
You are happy with the transparency?
You are happy with question time being suspended in parliament for the time it was?
You are happy with Jenny Mikakos's answers the one time she did front?

Dan and the ALP was a very solid A+ for me in round 1
They have failed the Victorian people miserably in round 2 in my opinion and that is the reason why this period of quarantine has needed to be as long as it has been.