CV and mad panic behaviour

[flyboy77]

With all due respect FB, nothing you have stated here actually discusses any point I was making so you are disagreeing with what point that I have stated?

FWIW, I dont speak from public numbers either.  I speak from my anecdotal experience of what I am seeing at the health network I work at.

I.e.  6 weeks ago, they were actually reverting back to normal at the health network I work at.  Our covid cases being admitted were low, and elective surgery was back on the table.  So much so, that the dedicated covid ward had been halved. 

Meanwhile, It was only last week, that one of our hospitals went live with a "clean and dirty" zone in their emergency department (an indictment on whoever is running the show there) but I think they were funnelling a lot of patients elsewhere until the numbers jumped in presentations at all sites.

The data at state, national, international level can paint whatever picture people want it to, but I want to point something out.

Most of the time, statistics are a lagging indicator.

What our management and Chief Medical Officer has been stating, is that the jump in numbers of positive cases don't lead to an increase of hospitalisation with anything but a 10 day lag time, and everyone started feeling very uncomfortable the minute we got to 100 positive cases per day and the discomfort wasnt seen in the network I work at for at least another fortnight.

Even now, there is a greater number of COVID positive patients at our hospital than there was even 1 month ago.  Why else do you think we are hearing about Peninsula health having 600 staff on furlough now?

The biggest problem?

We are a population of 5 million people (roughly across the city).  Our current total of positive cases is roughly 18714.  Our current Active cases is at 3300 odd.  Our deaths are sitting at 485, and our hospitals are under considerable strain with respect to their staffing already.  We have a very small sample number of what this virus can and cannot do, and I am not even speaking about that.

We can go with the open slather approach, let COVID run rampant, have most of our hospitals unable to be staffed, and then have stroke patients, dialysis patients, cancer patients, etc go into hospital for a "standard" health problem, and then have complications from their admission by contracting Covid whilst they are in there.

Its a very short sighted based on public viewpoint, to turn around and quote numbers, without seeing how this can quickly run away from us, and that is entirely the point of masks and lockdowns.  Its not necessarily there to stop the spread.  They actually prevent the behaviour that will cause the spread.  I.e. masks are uncomfortable, so less people put themselves in situations where they must wear one, therefore the mask works because it deters a behaviour that would otherwise cause people to spread the virus around.

Even our testing numbers dont tell a story.  We have incidents of people being tested 4 times, walking away happy as larry after a few weeks developing symptoms and coming back with a positive result shocked.  The reality?  They got sick somewhere after their last test.  Therefore take the millions of tests performed, quarter the number, and you are closer to the number of people actually tested to achieve a positive result.

Do the stats you quote show any of the above data?

I suggested you were 'wrong' based on the out of control numbers comment.

It wasn't out of control, the cases were always going to come once the testing was cranked up.

And sure I get the lag between test/positive case and hospitalisation.

Remember, once you've tested positive, you're immediately pulled off the grid.

And I get the perceived intent of signalling.

But the data in the chart (DHHS data) simply doesn't reveal any effect from either lock down or the mask mandate. Certainly, not enough to justify their implementation when you factor in the fall out on the other side!

It's not short sighted to rely on the data. It's what has to be relied on.  Everything else is pie in the sky speculation.

And there's too much at stake to speculate I would have thought.

Sorry Thry, but your 'it would run away' but for.... claim, simply is not supported by the data. Virus do what viruses do....and again,
Outside of the homes, and we all knew what would happen based on Europe and the US if the bug got into the homes, but outside that subset, deaths have been all but zero. We can address the died with or of another day?

You may have read about the crazy outbreak of cases in Spain in recent days - i think 5000+ cases in a day.

But look at the deaths (and yes, i appreciate you'll say wait for the lag to have effect) - barely a blip!

And that is reflected in many overseas jurisdictions too.

There simply is no solid evidence to support lock downs or masks (for otherwise healthy folk).

Social distancing - yeah, I get that. Ditto hand washing.

The rest is politics.