CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

So does that say that the daily cases spike lags the Reff spike by a month or so? Its weird because the first Reff spike didnt correlate to daily cases spikes but I guess testing wasnt occuring so it hard to deduce what that says. Daily tests would be good overlayed on that.

That's the right train of thought, yes there is a lag and it's also function of testing because when you test someone you do not really know what stage of infection or contagiousness that they are at.

You will recall that the government recalled a bunch of dodgy ineffective tests around May June and banned them from import, which saw a shortage of tests kits which was rectified by the end of June early July.

Also, the R[sub]e[/sub] effective reproduction rate is a measure of the rate of infection with respect to transmission, immunity, vaccination and all other mitigation measures like masks, quarantine and isolation.

The main raw measure is R[sub]0[/sub] which is the basic infection rate, that has barely changed in many months now. Readers have to be careful about it's reporting because in reality the virus has mutated and there are now many strains with varying levels of transmission, averages can be from a wide spread of contagious levels.

Another word of warning about language, all contagious diseases are infectious, but not all infectious diseases are contagious. Technically this difference is often manipulated by some segments of social media and political spectrum to make things look how they want them to look.

It's typical for the R[sub]0[/sub] to drop through the coarse of an infection, and it can mean very little about how contagious something is and more about the number of tests and other factors like natural immunity levels which are always higher than zero!

The real concern in the linked DHHS model would be the rising green bars, and why that was happening while R[sub]e[/sub] dropped!