(03-28-2020, 08:59 PM)kruddler date Wrote:People need to distinguish between cases and deaths.Yes, no doubt.
Flu season won't necessarily mean an increase in cases.....but it probably will lead to an increase number of deaths....a higher percentage of deaths from infected.
The early analysis has already shown a strong correlation between youthful severe cases of COVID-19 and Influenza antibodies, but these tests are retrospective so it's not clear the infections were simultaneous. While frail elderly and otherwise medically vulnerable types are highly susceptible to just SARS-CoV-2 alone, it does potentially mean simultaneous Influenza and COVID-19 infections increase the risk of serious outcomes for even the very healthy, youthful or otherwise. That potentially means the worst is yet to come for countries entering the Influenza season.
It's particularly prudent for Australia, which has one of the highest per capita ratios of asthmatics in the world.
The R0 of influenza is low, typically 1.3, that means one person can lead to 14(1.3[sup]10[/sup]) infections after ten infection cycles. The R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is trending towards 3, that means the same ten cycles leads to 59,049(3[sup]10[/sup]) cases.
A real concern is that COVID-19 might leave people more susceptible to Influenza, if that can cause the R0 of Infuenza to rise, for example becoming just 1.4, that means Influenza can become 29(1.4[sup]10[/sup]) infected people becoming twice as infectious / deadly.
Unfortunately the general public read some of this, perhaps reported as a 7% increase from 1.3 to 1.4, so who cares?
They and many of the journalist / bloggers reporting this do not understand the implications;
[table][tr][td]R0[/td]
[td]R0[sup]10[/sup][/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]1.3[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]1.4[/td]
[td]29[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]1.5[/td]
[td]57[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]1.6[/td]
[td]109[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]2.0[/td]
[td]1,024[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]3.0[/td]
[td]59,049[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]4.0[/td]
[td]1,048,576[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
If you get to an R0 of 7 or 8 you find out your connected in some way to Kevin Bacon!
"Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck ....... Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck"