Post Game Passion: AFL 2019 Rd 15: Carlton vs. Freo

[Thryleon]

There is no direct or indirect relationship between hard work and luck - they are occasionally coincident, nothing more and nothing less.

Yes and no.

Think back to the Gold Coast.

We are up, final contest in front of goal.

McGovern positions himself 1 metre too far out from goal to effect the goalward shot in the dying moments of the match.  Gold Coast got lucky with that but to get that opportunity to have luck, they had to create most of the momentum and play for that final quarter.

Carlton was unlucky that McGovern was getting sucked into that contest, rather than doing the goal line saving like his role was supposed to.  Gold Coast had the inverse effect of being lucky that he was getting sucked into the contest.  Bolton ultimately was the most unlucky.  That result might have been the difference between retaining his job, and not.



Like LP suggests, luck can vary.  A bouncing ball going in the right direction could very well have gotten Toss Lyon and Aint Kilda flag, but the ball ran away from Milne instead of toward.  I seem to recall thinking he was hoping for a lucky bounce and took the pedal off because had he pushed harder to get the aggot his attempt at goal would have been such low percentage that he may not have scored the goal anyway.  Thats where luck didnt smile on Milne and St. Kilda that day.  Result draw, and grand final replay where Collingwood win a premiership.

There are always degrees of luck.  Sometimes you can get lucky by not giving up, and working your bollocks off.  Sometimes irrespective of doing that, luck doesn't lend itself to you.

The truth is though, that in sports, teams do ride their their luck.  Usually that is the combination resulting in the ultimate success and glory.  I can think of a dozen examples where teams get lucky through either their own volition or a combination of circumstances, but there is one ingredient that invariably comes into the equation and that is teams catching a lucky break.  The most important thing to do is make full use of those situations when they present themselves.  The best I can think of is as follows.  15 years ago, Greece won a european cup.  They did it by being disciplined, and working extremely hard on game day and putting in the best 2 years of results a nation of that nature has seen or ever will see.  Yet, if not for a couple of lucky circumstances, they may not have won the trophy.  Examples.  Game 1.  Greece vs Portugal.  Roughly 6 mins into the game, a portugese defender loses the ball by just being a bit sloppy not in the most dangerous of circumstances.  A Greek attacking mid pounces on the lost ball and shoots almost instantaneously after controlling it wrong footing the goalkeeper who may not have even seen it unfold in time to do anything.  1-0 in Greeces favour in a game they ended up winning 2-1.  In the group stages, Greece lost to Russia 2-1.  A 2-0 result would have seen them crash out of those group stages on goal difference.  The goal was a combination of good fortune and good positioning by a forward pouncing on a lose ball at the back post.  In the semi final, one of the worlds best midfielders at the time (Pavel Nedved) left the game after a fairly minor collision after just 28 mins, thanks to a knee injury.  That changed the flow of the game as the Czech Republic had used him to penetrate an otherwise rock solid defense, and were getting closer to scoring until that moment.  The rules of the tournament introduced a silver goal for the first and last time during a tournament.  Silver goal meaning if you scored in the first half of extra time, the game was finished.  Greece scored a silver goal to qualify to the final against Portugal.  Against Portugal the winning goal was a header from a corner.  The corner was misread by defender and goalkeeper who collided rather than intercepting the cross leaving a greek attacker to head it in by simply having had a good ball knocked in, and being in the right place at the right time.  That is a combination of preparation and luck.  If not for goalkeeper and defender colliding that goal doesnt occur and the whole game changes.

This is where teams get lucky, and by doing it of their own volition.  Defenders don't lose the ball without a little bit of pressure.  Players don't get injured without someone contesting.  Balls don't end up in situations which force errors without the dangerous play being created by people being industrious and putting things in just the right area to result in a favourable circumstance.

A little known factor heading into that tournament.  Greece had a defender break his leg in a car accident.  He had been a mainstay in the lineup through qualifying for 18 months or the 16 official matches required to qualify, and missed all of the final tournament(Nikos Dabizas).  The fact that someone else was ready to fill in for his absence and did so with aplomb is a combination of luck and hard work by others.  Had Greece bombed out of that tournament, through a defense that conceded too many goals, they would have been talking about how unlucky it was to lose said player through a car accident of all circumstances. 


The fates play a role to a degree.  The adage of the harder you work the luckier you get is true to a degree.  You cannot control when circumstances are going to conspire against you, or for you.  What you can control is where you sit for those circumstances to play themselves out.


As an avid sports fan, watching a country of my heritage win one of those tournaments is possibly one of the great dreams for anybody.  I still have people tell me that I lived their dreams.  The reality is, that I was 22, had the available resources and means to not only get to that tournament but buy tickets and get to every single match that Greece played in plus a couple more.  The odds of that occurring for anyone of Greek heritage ever again are so slim given Greece's relative standing, and their ability to win those tournaments that it is something that I will forever consider myself lucky to have witnessed it in my lifetime.  I did have to have the guts to go out on a limb, and travel halfway around the world to a foreign country, expecting nothing but some entertainment by our opposition, and to have a bit of an adventure and managed to get lucky and see some of my wildest dreams come true.  That is where I created my own luck.  The rest of circumstances conspired to assist with lady luck playing her part.