A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.

[PaulP]

Yes, agree with you here Paul, you cannot expect overnight success. Bolton was very reticent to let Gibbs go, as he knew what that really meant in terms of effect on the team, and, the players around him. You can't replace that without a like for like, which was know we couldn't get. Injuries, and the departure of experience left us devoid of coverage - all discussed here before.

Personally, the arrival of Andrew Fraser may be the greatest recruiting impact for next season in particular, and, I suspect the year after. This will shape the list, allow players to start to show their talent on the bigger stage. Who knows what a fit SPS, Williamson, and, Pickett may deliver. Those three in particular I highlight, as some serious organic development from them covers not only their set positions, but opens up new areas of the ground. If SPS, and Pickett were able to push into the midfield more, or play off half back, you will see other positional changes from other players, and this will really help us develop.

The players I expect to show some real organic development this year are:
Setterfield (if he gets a full pre-season, no reason he cannot be a very good player in his first year essentially - think Dow last year)
Cunningham (again, full pre-season, and who knows what he can deliver)
Williamson (if fit, he will play a lot this year)
Macreadie (the forgotten man in many ways, I rate this guy)
O'Brien (he has some talent, will be much better for another run, and a full pre-season)
Lang (full pre-season into him, and I think he will be starting 22 most weeks. He can play, showed that at Geelong, and in flashes last year)
Kennedy (he played a couple of solid games this year, give him a full pre-season under Fraser - different player in 2019).
Shumacher (my dark horse for break out year, I think if fit with a full pre-season, this guy will break into the side, and stay there)

Factor this type of development into those players, a full pre-season into Fasolo, Mckay, DeKonig, Marchbank, and Kerr, then you have the makings of real solid organic growth right across the park.

I don't expect a 'Dockers' game this year. I think those things will be eradicated, and, if so, if you look at the rest of our games (taking out the horror shows), you see a pretty competitive Carlton in most games next year.

I know it's only pre-season, but I think there is real cause for optimism for 2019. How may games will we win? It will probably come down to injuries on other lists, the organic improvement rate pre-round ten, and, how well they 'gell' or build 'cohesion' as Chris Judd often mentions. I would be happy with say two to three wins pre-round ten, which would set us up nicely for an overall of around seven to ten games for the year.

If that scenario played out, we could beat the Saints, Suns, Dockers, and probably the Bulldogs, give Geelong a run (we did this season), knock over the hawks, push the Pies, Richmond, and Eagles. I think we can also (dependent on injuries), knock over the Crows here, and, Port Adelaide. Down here I think we also a pretty good chance against the Lions (I rate them - quietly building up there), and will definitely push the Swans down here.

There is a lot to look forward to in my opinion.

I'm not too sure what next season will bring to be honest. If many things go our way, then yes, it could work out ok. But I still maintain that we are in that danger zone, where it only takes a couple of things to go pear shaped, and we will back to dismal days.

On Bolton, my position is that he hasn't had much to work with, so we can't really judge. He may or may not be any good, but I want to see what he can do with a stable and fit best 22, then judge him. He had zip to work with this season, and I maintain that not even Clarkson could have engineered anything better. Well, maybe an additional win or two, but that's it.