A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.

[kruddler]

+1.

It's like the reverse of murphy's law.

Everything has to go perfectly for us to have a dramatic improvement to our fortunes.

We will be doing well to have won about 6-8 games, and I also think thats a realistic target to aim for, and yet that still will see us in that bottom 4-6 scenario.

I say this every year, but i can never recall it perfectly but its along the same lines as you.

But, factors people fail to consider, which happens almost every year are....
1. Long term injury to important players
2. 2nd year blues - A young kid fails to live up to the breakout first season and goes backwards in year 2 - Dow?
3. A veteran player starts to decline and fails to live up to their lofty standards - Simpson?
4. A shock retirement - Rowe this year (albeit end of year) maybe Kreuzer this year?

and there are a couple of other ones which i cannot recall. Something about a couple of players not having a pre-season and playing catchup all year (ala Kennedy/Lang)

Factor all of that into your predictions and it'll be a lot more accurate.