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[ElwoodBlues1]

In the real world you can't expect this list to be anymore than it currently is, given it's demographics.  If at the start of the season Essendon had our list we would have all said that a bottom 2 list.  Otherwise you are getting into Murray Goulbern Areas of telling everyone you will get $4 a litre for milk, when the market wants to pay $2

Our blue chips talent is all at the bottom end age wise.  It's difficult to draw parallels with North who still have Higgins, Goldstein, Robbie Tarrant, Ziebell, Cunnington, Brown all 25 years old with 100 odd games of football?  Who do we have in this bracket to match that?  Our blokes at that age bracket are Kerridge, Lamb, Mullett, Shaw, Phillips, Jones, Casboult, Wright, Curnow, Kreuzer, Lobbe.    Battlers and honest footballers.  These are the guys that are consistent with their performance week in week out.
North haven't cut back like we have.  They still have talent at the top end.    If they traded Zeibell and Higgins maybe.   

In 3-4 years time who will have the better list when this bracket moves on.

So timeframe?

GWS took 4 years to break 50/50, but had a massive injection of young talent.

Maybe similar to the Demons rebuild.    Vintage 2012.

Moved (or lost)  Rivers, Moloney, Stef Martin, Green, Sylvia, Frawley.  Cut the dead wood and didn't have much top end older talent.

2012: 16th 4 wins.  Rebuild Starts
2013:  17th 2 wins
2014:  17th 4 wins
2015:  13th 7 wins.
2016:  11th 10 wins.
2017:  9th  12 wins.

Now Melbourne haven't mastered the rebuild.  It's not the Blueprint, but it shows how long it can take and yes I think it can be done quicker with FA etc.  But you have Gawn (26), Viney (24), Hogan (23), Salem (22), Petracca (22), Hunt (23), Tyson (24) all at that 60-100 game bracket.  Add Oliver and you are on your way.
   
I would think bottom 4 next year.

Thats a comprehensive answer, you make a lot of good points and I agree with your theory of bottom four next season....while I am happy to agree I'm not so sure the average supporter will see an extended rebuild built on development at the expense of results for too long as acceptable or the media who like a unsuccessful coach/club or two as a target for for headlines....