What time is it?

[Navy Maven]

For me, there are two approaches one could take :

1. the approach you've taken, which I call the graduated scale approach, where you can look at the various criteria, lists, coaches etc., and tease out from this whether certain teams are ahead of others.

2. A simpler approach, where you essentially have 2 groups : 1. genuine premiership contenders, and 2. the rest.

I can see the merit in both, but to me, teams like Essendon are not really any closer to the next flag than we are. They are without doubt closer to playing finals than we are, but making up the numbers in the 8 is one thing - being a genuine flag chance is quite another. The leap required to go from 5-8 to 1-4 in the H/A is greater than going from, say 9-12 to 5-8. At least IMO.

And as an aside, I don't understand the consternation towards Richmond. They finished 3rd, missing top 2 by 2 points, with a higher % than the 2nd placed Geelong. They lost several games by single digit figures. A stray kick here or there and they would have finished 1st. They were absolutely in the mix, in the 2nd half of the season, and certainly in finals.

I think that long term, we are much better placed than Essendon, but looking solely at 2018, they’re in a much better position than us for success this year. What the past couple of years has shown us is that there aren’t teams ‘making up the numbers’ in the finals anymore. Bulldogs weren’t favourite in any of their finals in 2016, but it was them holding up the Cup at the end of it. Richmond in my opinion were not the best team in 2017, in fact going into the finals I would have had 3 teams above them...but again, they had the last laugh. They’re not a team with great depth, they had a lot of ordinary foot soldiers in their Premiership team, but they were hungry and lucky with injuries. If a team like Essendon have the same luck, then certainly they’re in the mix. I mean I still think there are at least 5 or so teams that are more likely, but I can’t disscount them.