Where do you think Carlton will finish in 2017?

[kruddler]

Here's my thinking...There's actually two components to it.

Firstly.....

Our 2017 list is an improvement on our 2016 list...(anyone think differently?).
The only way we go backwards in terms of ladder position/ games won is....

1)Teams below us improve at a greater rate (possible)
2) We get hit by a dreadful injury run (also possible)

My estimate of (9-12) of is a gamble that neither of these two things will happen.

There is also a twist on option 1, that is a 1.1 if you will.
We are not as lucky as we were last year.
We won a few games (Geelong) in which a couple of things change and the result is different. We won that game by 19 points. But they had 1 more scoring shot.
A bounce here, a gust of wind there and all of a sudden different result.

Now back to the original premise. Our 2017 list is an improvement on 2016.

Define improvement.

Walker, Jamison, Tuohy were all best 22 at the start of the year. All gone, 2 through injury essentially. 472 games experience walks out the door.
What kind of experience did we get back? Palmer?? Not in best 22 at this stage.

Long term improvement, sure, more talent added.
Immediate improvement, not so sure about that.

[Lods]

Luck is a variable...our luck may turn out to be better this year.
We don't know that yet

Walker and Jamison gave us very little last year for all their experience
Tuohy is a loss but the addition of Marchbank into the backline has allowed Weitering to move forward so that kind of negates that loss.

Definitely a better list.

[kruddler]

Luck is a variable...our luck may turn out to be better this year.
We don't know that yet

Walker and Jamison gave us very little last year for all their experience
Tuohy is a loss but the addition of Marchbank into the backline has allowed Weitering to move forward so that kind of negates that loss.

Definitely a better list.

Better list for 2017......or 2019?

Its easy to say its a better list now because our next Lucas, Watson, DVR, Smith....hasn't outed themselves yet

[Lods]

I'm judging it just on the best team we can put on the field in 2017....compared to the best team we could put on the field in 2016

Do you think the 2016 side was better Kruds?

[sydneybluesfan]

Better list for 2017......or 2019?

Its easy to say its a better list now because our next Lucas, Watson, DVR, Smith....hasn't outed themselves yet

How true - it's too early to say whether the list is better. It's easy to say at this stage that last years and this years draftees will mean we have a better list in another 2 years time, but we just don't know.

When you look at the list the problem is that the 12/13/14 drafting and trading is a train wreck, and we therefore have very few guys with 40-60 games experience who a solid AFL footballers. Doc and Crippa are it really. We have a massive hole in the middle of the list, and you can't lose experience like Tuohy, Jamo, Walks and Hendo and replace them with kids and hope to get the same results in the short term. You are likely to go backwards.

In a perfect world 4-5 of Boek, Whiley, Tutt, Jones, KJ, Gorringe, DVR, Menzel, Temay, Graham, Giles, Holman, Everitt, Smith, Dick, Foster would have developed into solid players who contributed strongly week to week - even that would be a 33% strike rate. Instead we got almost nothing out of that cohort, so we now have to keep playing White, Casboult, Armfield and Daisy because we have nothing better. And we have to keep blooding a high proportion of players with under 25 games experience and pray we find some diamonds in that group.

[kruddler]

I'm judging it just on the best team we can put on the field in 2017....compared to the best team we could put on the field in 2016

Do you think the 2016 side was better Kruds?

Its simply too early to tell.

You discount Walker/Jamison from that because they had minimal impact.
Who do you discount from this season for the same reason?

Maybe simpson succumbs to his age sooner rather than later.

You dont know

[Lods]

I said I'd let folk know if I'd changed my mind about our finishing position after round 5 or 6.
I picked 9th to 12th
Yep
I've changed my mind.
We're not interested in winning at the moment.
I hope they know what they're doing.

[ElwoodBlues1]

I said I'd let folk know if I'd changed my mind about our finishing position after round 5 or 6.
I picked 9th to 12th
Yep
I've changed my mind.
We're not interested in winning at the moment.
I hope they know what they're doing.

I'm sticking with bottom 4 like I said initially...2-3 wins max.....

[kruddler]

I said I'd let folk know if I'd changed my mind about our finishing position after round 5 or 6.
I picked 9th to 12th
Yep
I've changed my mind.
We're not interested in winning at the moment.
I hope they know what they're doing.

I'm not so sure that we are not interested in winning. I think they know we will very much struggle to win games...which will cause dramas. So a bit of misdirection, and added benefit of sorts, is to play the kids. Keep the wolves at bay a bit.

[sandsmere]

I said I'd let folk know if I'd changed my mind about our finishing position after round 5 or 6.
I picked 9th to 12th
Yep
I've changed my mind.
We're not interested in winning at the moment.
I hope they know what they're doing.

Me too Lods.

My prediction now is bottom two.