The Hard Road To The Premiership

[Lods]

My personal view is also that until you get a few decent, smart forwards in your team your forward entries are usually going to be terrible. Opp defences these days are very fit, well drilled and organised, and we are very easy to set up against because we don't have multiple marking threats and players who can draw opponents away from the ball. The obvious example of this is Hawthorn, who have a great balance of athletic talls, mid sized marking players [Gunston] and smaller players [Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Shields]. 

True'...but it's pretty hard to know how good your forwards really are when they're starved of opportunities.

One of the things we have to be careful of is looking at the forward line in isolation.
So much depends on the backline and midfield creating scoring opportunities for the forwards.

If you're being beaten further down the field a forward's life can be a pretty lonely one and a defence's job is so much easier if forward entries are constantly being made under pressure.

[Thryleon]

At the end of the day, those tempering their expectations are simply making a case that we need time.

That means, less pressure on the club, less pressure on the players, less pressure on the coaches, and more time to figure it all out.

We might see snippets this season.  Some more green shoots.  Some will grow quite quickly, others will take some time.

It happens.

[LP]

On the stats side of things it is remarkable how similar AFL games are on average when you combine the stats of both teams. A few percent might not sound much but it makes a massive difference.

Lets say you have a combined average from both teams of one scoring shot every ten F50 entries, so that means 10% of F50 entries create a score.

If one team can increase scores from entries to 11% or 12% that is massive, it's a 10% or 20% swing, and that comes at the expense of your opponent, so maybe they drop from 10% down to 9% or 8%.

I know it doesn't sound much but that is equal to a 4 or 5 goal swing which effectively flips the result of most games.

[Amers]

Murph has had 20+ goal seasons in the past, So  has Gibbs, I think, he is definitely a goal kicker anyway. So is Palmer. If Wright can repeat last year, there's another. It would only take a slightly more consistent year from Casboult to kick 25+ goals. I reckon SOS could average close to a goal a game this year as well. Pickett, kicked 2 goals in a qtr last week.

I've named 7 players, even if only 4-5 of those can have 20+ goal seasons we will be well ahead of where we were last year, and it's not asking for miracles of any one player.

[LP]

Murph has had 20+ goal seasons in the past, So  has Gibbs, I think, he is definitely a goal kicker anyway. So is Palmer. If Wright can repeat last year, there's another. It would only take a slightly more consistent year from Casboult to kick 25+ goals. I reckon SOS could average close to a goal a game this year as well. Pickett, kicked 2 goals in a qtr last week.

I've named 7 players, even if only 4-5 of those can have 20+ goal seasons we will be well ahead of where we were last year, and it's not asking for miracles of any one player.

This is exactly the key, which is why coaches care far more about a spread of goal kickers than a Coleman medalist.

A good example is Cloke, his was barely missed in 2016 by the Pies. Their Win/Loss record was the same with or without him!

[PaulP]

No doubt a spread of goal kickers is desirable and helps you move up the ladder a little, but the successful top end teams still seem to have "star attraction" and a very good supporting cast i.e one bloke who can kick 50+ goals and a few others not far behind.

The Doggies are a real anamoly in this respect.

[PaulP]

As a small sample, have a look here, and click on the GL column :

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html

[LP]

As a small sample, have a look here, and click on the GL column :

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html

The most telling stat is I50 all the top goal kicking teams have higher than average I50 counts, but the I50 of the top teams is only 30% more than the bottom teams, while the conversion rate is much higher meaning goals almost double.

Example on goals only;
Adelaide 396/1389 = 28%
Carlton 224/1116 = 20%

If we look at scoring shots in total;
Adelaide 667/1389 = 48%
Carlton 410/1116 = 36%

If Carlton had scored goals 28% of the time it enters F50 we would have kicked 312 goals last season, roughly equal to West Coast, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide but better than Norp.

That's between 3 and 4 more goals a game we need to be equivalent to a top eight team without extra entries.

The difference between the KPF and the average goals per game accounts for little of those differences, because you can only attribute the difference between the top goal kicker and your clubs average players. The most successful teams are those that have more players in the 20 to 40 goal kickers.

Coaches push the repeat effort mantra because reward for effort is not linear, those extra efforts when players go above and beyond opponents are rewarded disproportionately. Which is why a 30% increase in F50 entries results in twice as many goals. It's also a prime reason why blokes like Franklin and Kennedy are so successful, and why Fev was so successful. Lead, double back, lead, back, lead again! Work equals reward, 2nd, 3rd or 4th leads get rewarded more than 1st leads.

When Casboult played his best he regularly got the ball on his 3rd lead, but his kicking deteriorates as he gets tired as it does for everybody, he is starting from an already low base. When he sucks he is often out of the contest after his 2nd lead, same applies to Jones.

Jones is an interesting one, his worst games last year was when he gave up. Earlier in the season he wasn't rewarded for his good work because our team wasn't spotting him up, despite him achieving great separation and working his ar5e off. If teams do not reward players for effort the effort stops, and so did Jones!

Betts does so well because he's like a jigsaw, he's back and forth that often his opponents must get seasick!

[PaulP]

No question that getting value for your F50 entries is critical.

An extra 3 or 4 per game might not look like much on paper, but that would require how many extra I50? 10 ? 12 ? If we're looking at 5 or 6 players kicking around 20 goal per season, I'm not sure the extra 3 or 4 goals per game is that easy.

[LP]

No question that getting value for your F50 entries is critical.

An extra 3 or 4 per game might not look like much on paper, but that would require how many extra I50? 10 ? 12 ? If we're looking at 5 or 6 players kicking around 20 goal per season, I'm not sure the extra 3 or 4 goals per game is that easy.

Probably ten I50 if you also increase the efficiency.

Our problem isn't the KPF it's the average goal kickers, last season our highest on average was Everitt but he was #70 on the league tables, our next is Jones in about #84 position and Armfield at #89 position. We only had 3 players in the top 100, Tutt was #113 and Wright #116.

It's a very sad state of affairs, most of our guys average less than a goal a game, we need four or five more players getting a goal a game and we have a significant change.

SOJ, C.Curnow could be two who can average above 1 per game.
Murphy if he's back averages about 0.7
McKay who knows?
Cripps should improve in this regard.
SPS / Pickett / Le Bois can they get to 1 goal a game?