Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[Mav]

Trump has finally admitted that Obama was born in America.  The Washington Post published an interview with him this morning in which he refused to do so but his campaign has released a statement on his behalf in which he blames (falsely) Clinton for disputing his place of birth and claiming that by forcing Obama to release his long-form birth certificate he helped Obama and showed his patriotism and ability as a closer.

[cookie2]

Well most people, at least the ones I speak to and read, thought this was Hilary's to lose. It couldn't really happen could it?

[Mav]

Maybe this is looking for the silver lining but it's not a bad thing that voters realise that Trump might get in if they don't turn out to vote.  Apathy might bring Clinton undone, especially as she isn't the most exciting of candidates.

In the Brexit vote, the Remain camp had the lead in polls taken just before the vote.  As we know, a number of voters had buyers' remorse after the event, saying that they only voted Leave as a protest vote, thinking that the vote would be in favour of remaining in the EU.  Perhaps the tightening polls in the presidential race might provoke moderate Republicans and Sanders bros to vote for Hillary instead of the Greens or Libertarians.  It might also turn out more black and latino voters.

[Mav]

Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) and Jill Stein (Greens) haven't made the cut for the 1st debate on Monday week, 26/9.  That would be good news for Hillary.  She would want to go head to head with Trump for as long as possible and wouldn't want precious time to be eaten up by Johnson.  She also wants to consolidate the anti-Trump vote, so she hardly wants Stein and Johnson to have the spotlight.  Trump had said that Johnson should be invited, no doubt because he could then make it a true 3 ring circus.  But neither candidate influenced this decision.  It was made by the independent body which runs the debates simply because Stein and Johnson didn't meet the requirement of averaging 15% or more in the polls.

[cookie2]

http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-electi...rj8cc.html

Hillary's bid looks about to be Trumped. Watching this unbelievable event slowly unfold is like watching a slow motion train wreck.  :o

[Mav]

Worrying, but it's not yet time to see Dr Nitschke.  The pneumonia issue obviously had an impact as well as the 'basket of deplorables' comment (although I can't understand how any moderate would be offended given that White Supremacists and other wingnuts well deserve the label).  The health issue would obviously abate if Clinton continues to campaign hard and Trump better keep on using his antibacterial handwashes or else he'll cop it too.  Perhaps biological weapons, i.e. babies held out by proud Trump supporters, might bring him undone.

But current polling is probably of little interest anyway. The 1st debate takes place next Monday.  To say it's an important event is downplaying its significance.  It's going to be a monster.  It will be just about the most watched event ever.  Even Americans who aren't interested in politics will tune in to see what Trump does.  If Trump faceplants, end of game.  If he does well, end of game.  The question is, what metric will swinging voters use to assess his performance?  If he brings a low content but highly-colourful game, will style trump content?  Perhaps debating and political experts will give the nod to Clinton while swinging voters will give it to Trump.

The difficulty for Clinton is that she may only get one shot at it.  If Trump does well in the 1st debate, he may well refuse to turn up to the last 2.  He's already laying the groundwork, saying that Anderson Cooper, the CNN presenter who is to co-moderate the 2nd debate, is biased against him and should be dumped.  I wouldn't even exclude the possibility of pulling out of the 1st debate if he thinks he's doing well enough but I suspect that depriving the public of that spectacle might create a backlash.

[Mav]

The NYC pressure-cooker bombing might have some impact.  Looks like the FBI is fairly advanced in its investigation and we may well know more about the culprits and their motives quite soon.  As there's been no claim of responsibility from ISIS or any other terrorist organisation, it's possible the culprits were right-wing terrorists.  That would create an interesting twist that may create problems for Trump.  On the other hand, ISIS claimed a separate knife attack was down to one of its 'soldiers'.

[Mav]

Damn, the suspect is a naturalised Afghan.  Trump's roll continues, even if he had no formal links to M/E terrorists.

[Mav]

It's here!  1st debate starts in an hour.  Trump is tipped to be boring Trump to be reassuring to uncommitted voters.  Will he be able to stay that way for 90 minutes without breaks?  Will Clinton be able to press his buttons?

[madbluboy]

It's here!  1st debate starts in an hour.  Trump is tipped to be boring Trump to be reassuring to uncommitted voters.  Will he be able to stay that way for 90 minutes without breaks?  Will Clinton be able to press his buttons?

No chance. She will get personal and he will get personal then Trump will be called a bully.

Hillary is obviously worried about this hence all her acting classes she has been doing in the lead up, not sure anything can prepare her for what Trump is going to bring?