AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

[LP]

I haven't seen it but I imagine Hoyne is using historical data to predict an outcome.  He should realise that matches yet to be played are completely independent from what has happened in the past and virtually any result is possible in a game of footy.  Personnel, preparation and mindset will determine the outcome.

Agreed, the stats they often present are almost the numerical representation of the gambler's fallacy.

Personally, this week is the opportunity for our MC to shine, they'll be more important than the cattle that take the park!

[Gointocarlton]

Agreed, the stats they often present are almost the numerical representation of the gambler's fallacy.

Personally, this week is the opportunity for our MC to shine, they'll be more important than the cattle that take the park!

Its not stats, its game style, specific player form and player impact.
They also pointed out on The Front Bar last night that we haven't won a last round match since 2013. Voss and boys needs to fix that this weekend.

[madbluboy]

Listening to it now.

[Lods]

Stats are only ever a measure of the past.
They can be used as a guide, but the unpredictable nature of football and the constant changes (to rules, game styles etc), the development and falling away of players (sometimes within a game) means they are unreliable as a future predictor.

Now factor in things like travel, weather, injury and illness, fatigue etc and you're struggling to pick a winner.
If past efforts were accurate predictors there would never be an 'upset'.

[Thryleon]

Its not stats, its game style, specific player form and player impact.
They also pointed out on The Front Bar last night that we haven't won a last round match since 2013. Voss and boys needs to fix that this weekend.

the statistic that shows we haven't won this match is flawed.

I.e.  in 2013 we needed that win to finish 9th against Port Adelaide and take that finals spot. 

In most years after 2013 the queue was in the rack.  Last year that cost us nothing against gws and we fielded a second string line up.  In my recent memory 2022 was the first year we needed to win in round 23 to make finals, and we fell short but missed on percentage against a team that won a flag a year later.

Every other year is effectively irrelevant since 2013.

[kruddler]

the statistic that shows we haven't won this match is flawed.

I.e.  in 2013 we needed that win to finish 9th against Port Adelaide and take that finals spot. 

In most years after 2013 the queue was in the rack.  Last year that cost us nothing against gws and we fielded a second string line up.  In my recent memory 2022 was the first year we needed to win in round 23 to make finals, and we fell short but missed on percentage against a team that won a flag a year later.

Every other year is effectively irrelevant since 2013.

100%.

For teams outside the 8, its rather simple and this will trend that way.
Until you remove the benefit for losing and at the same time, penalise those for winning, and this is the result you will likely see repeated
ie, tanking.

[Milhanna13]

the aints have a horrible knack of beating us when it matters, in recent time (ie 20-odd years)

i have visions of a quick kick out of a pack, from some bloke i have never heard of, at the 25min mark of the last quarter (all while crippa is being held by both arms and both legs, by steele), sending us on our way out of the finals

[ElwoodBlues1]

the aints have a horrible knack of beating us when it matters, in recent time (ie 20-odd years)

i have visions of a quick kick out of a pack, from some bloke i have never heard of, at the 25min mark of the last quarter (all while crippa is being held by both arms and both legs, by steele), sending us on our way out of the finals

Know what you mean Mil but I reckon this time its different and we will prevail and with Charlie and Harry hopefully back give them a good kicking back down the ladder where they belong. My daughters inlaws are all mad keen Saints fans, hate Carlton and are planning a big day at the game and its going to be a nightmare putting up with them if we lose  and miss finals. Have this feeling Freo are going to win too so there wont be any 2nd chances...

[LP]

We've got half a list and it's a crapshoot, nobody can tell what is going to happen.

Head nerd Hoyne makes the prediction of doom so he can go the "I told you so", if we win he'll claim "Carlton did what he suggested we needed to", I'm sure it gives him the warm Nostradamus feeling, but the report is little more than "They need to score more points than the opposition to win!" This is old school Caro and Flubbo tactics.

What would be impressive is if one of the nerds come out before the game and predicted something very specific, like which players will star or flop on the day, and how a club will finish up ahead or behind on various team stats! But I'm cynical, in that they'd probably tell us Walsh will cover more ground than his opponents, or Cripps will get most contested possessions.

[kruddler]

Is there a link to this Hoyne stuff?